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Stratospheric aerosol injection tactics and costs in the first 15 years of deployment

Environmental research letters, 2018-12, Vol.13 (12), p.124001 [Peer Reviewed Journal]

2018 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd ;2018. This work is published under http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/ (the “License”). Notwithstanding the ProQuest Terms and Conditions, you may use this content in accordance with the terms of the License. ;ISSN: 1748-9326 ;EISSN: 1748-9326 ;DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/aae98d ;CODEN: ERLNAL

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  • Title:
    Stratospheric aerosol injection tactics and costs in the first 15 years of deployment
  • Author: Smith, Wake ; Wagner, Gernot
  • Subjects: Aircraft ; Aircraft design ; albedo modification ; Altitude ; Anthropogenic factors ; Costs ; Design modifications ; Geoengineering ; High altitude ; high-altitude aircraft ; Lofting ; Mathematical analysis ; Ozone ; Radiative forcing ; solar geoengineering ; solar radiation management ; Stratosphere ; Surveying ; Tactics ; Tankers
  • Is Part Of: Environmental research letters, 2018-12, Vol.13 (12), p.124001
  • Description: We review the capabilities and costs of various lofting methods intended to deliver sulfates into the lower stratosphere. We lay out a future solar geoengineering deployment scenario of halving the increase in anthropogenic radiative forcing beginning 15 years hence, by deploying material to altitudes as high as ∼20 km. After surveying an exhaustive list of potential deployment techniques, we settle upon an aircraft-based delivery system. Unlike the one prior comprehensive study on the topic (McClellan et al 2012 Environ. Res. Lett. 7 034019), we conclude that no existing aircraft design-even with extensive modifications-can reasonably fulfill this mission. However, we also conclude that developing a new, purpose-built high-altitude tanker with substantial payload capabilities would neither be technologically difficult nor prohibitively expensive. We calculate early-year costs of ∼$1500 ton−1 of material deployed, resulting in average costs of ∼$2.25 billion yr−1 over the first 15 years of deployment. We further calculate the number of flights at ∼4000 in year one, linearly increasing by ∼4000 yr−1. We conclude by arguing that, while cheap, such an aircraft-based program would unlikely be a secret, given the need for thousands of flights annually by airliner-sized aircraft operating from an international array of bases.
  • Publisher: Bristol: IOP Publishing
  • Language: English
  • Identifier: ISSN: 1748-9326
    EISSN: 1748-9326
    DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/aae98d
    CODEN: ERLNAL
  • Source: Open Access: DOAJ Directory of Open Access Journals
    Open Access: IOP Publishing Free Content
    Geneva Foundation Free Medical Journals at publisher websites
    AUTh Library subscriptions: ProQuest Central
    IOPscience (Open Access)
    ROAD: Directory of Open Access Scholarly Resources
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