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Quasi‐Stationary Intense Rainstorms Spread Across Europe Under Climate Change

Geophysical research letters, 2021-07, Vol.48 (13), p.n/a [Peer Reviewed Journal]

2021 Crown copyright. This article is published with the permission of the Controller of HMSO and the Queen's Printer for Scotland. ;ISSN: 0094-8276 ;EISSN: 1944-8007 ;DOI: 10.1029/2020GL092361

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  • Title:
    Quasi‐Stationary Intense Rainstorms Spread Across Europe Under Climate Change
  • Author: Kahraman, Abdullah ; Kendon, Elizabeth J. ; Chan, Steven C. ; Fowler, Hayley J.
  • Subjects: Arctic Amplification ; climate change ; convection‐permitting simulations ; ingredients‐based approach ; precipitation extremes ; thunderstorm motion
  • Is Part Of: Geophysical research letters, 2021-07, Vol.48 (13), p.n/a
  • Description: Under climate change, increases in precipitation extremes are expected due to higher atmospheric moisture. However, the total precipitation in an event also depends on the condensation rate, precipitation efficiency, and duration. Here, a new approach following an “ingredients‐based methodology” from severe weather forecasting identifies important aspects of the heavy precipitation response to climate change, relevant from an impacts perspective and hitherto largely neglected. Using 2.2 km climate simulations, we show that a future increase in precipitation extremes across Europe occurs, not only because of higher moisture and updraft velocities, but also due to slower storm movement, increasing local duration. Environments with extreme precipitation potential are 7× more frequent than today by 2100, while the figure for quasi‐stationary ones is 11× (14× for land). We find that a future reduction in storm speeds, possibly through Arctic Amplification, could enhance event accumulations and flood risk beyond expectations from studies focusing on precipitation rates. Plain Language Summary Intense rainstorms are expected to be more frequent due to global warming, because warmer air can hold more moisture. Here, using very detailed climate simulations (with a 2.2 km grid), we show that the storms producing intense rain across Europe might move slower with climate change, increasing the duration of local exposure to these extremes. Our results suggest such slow‐moving storms may be 14× more frequent across land by the end of the century. Currently, almost‐stationary intense rainstorms are uncommon in Europe and happen rarely over parts of the Mediterranean Sea, but in future are expected to occur across the continent, including in the north. The main reason seems to be a reduced temperature difference between the poles and tropics, which weakens upper‐level winds in the autumn, when these short‐duration rainfall extremes most occur. This slower storm movement acts to increase rainfall amounts accumulated locally, enhancing the risk of flash floods across Europe beyond what was previously expected. Key Points Following an ingredients‐based method, future changes in intense rainstorms in Europe are studied using convection‐permitting simulations Environments favoring high rainfall rates are projected to be 7× more frequent by 2100, while the figure for quasi‐stationary ones is 11× Reduction in storm speeds due to weaker jets, possibly via Arctic Amplification, can enhance accumulations further increasing flood risk
  • Language: English
  • Identifier: ISSN: 0094-8276
    EISSN: 1944-8007
    DOI: 10.1029/2020GL092361
  • Source: Wiley Blackwell AGU Digital Library
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