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Similar Estimates of Temperature Impacts on Global Wheat Yield by Three Independent Methods

Nature climate change, 2016-12, Vol.6 (12), p.1130-1136 [Peer Reviewed Journal]

Copyright Nature Publishing Group Dec 2016 ;Attribution ;Wageningen University & Research ;ISSN: 1758-678X ;EISSN: 1758-6798 ;DOI: 10.1038/nclimate3115

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Title:
Similar Estimates of Temperature Impacts on Global Wheat Yield by Three Independent Methods
Author: Liu, Bing ; Asseng, Senthold ; Muller, Christoph ; Ewart, Frank ; Elliott, Joshua ; Lobell, David B. ; Martre, Pierre ; Ruane, Alex C. ; Wallach, Daniel ; Jones, James W. ; Rosenzweig, Cynthia ; Deryng, Delphine
Subjects: Agricultural sciences ; Alterra - Climate change and adaptive land and water management ; Alterra - Klimaatverandering en adaptief land- en watermanagement ; Climate Change ; Climate Change and Adaptive Land and Water Management ; Computer Programming And Software ; Earth Resources And Remote Sensing ; Earth System Science ; Environmental Sciences ; Global Changes ; Klimaatverandering ; Klimaatverandering en adaptief land- en watermanagement ; Leerstoelgroep Aardsysteemkunde ; Leerstoelgroep Plantaardige productiesystemen ; Life Sciences ; PE&RC ; Plant Production Systems ; Plantaardige Productiesystemen ; Triticum aestivum ; Vegetal Biology ; WIMEK
Is Part Of: Nature climate change, 2016-12, Vol.6 (12), p.1130-1136
Description: The potential impact of global temperature change on global crop yield has recently been assessed with different methods. Here we show that grid-based and point-based simulations and statistical regressions (from historic records), without deliberate adaptation or CO2 fertilization effects, produce similar estimates of temperature impact on wheat yields at global and national scales. With a 1 C global temperature increase, global wheat yield is projected to decline between 4.1% and 6.4%. Projected relative temperature impacts from different methods were similar for major wheat-producing countries China, India, USA and France, but less so for Russia. Point-based and grid-based simulations, and to some extent the statistical regressions, were consistent in projecting that warmer regions are likely to suffer more yield loss with increasing temperature than cooler regions. By forming a multi-method ensemble, it was possible to quantify 'method uncertainty' in addition to model uncertainty. This significantly improves confidence in estimates of climate impacts on global food security.
Publisher: Goddard Space Flight Center: Nature Publishing Group
Language: English
Identifier: ISSN: 1758-678X
EISSN: 1758-6798
DOI: 10.1038/nclimate3115
Source: NASA Technical Reports Server
Hyper Article en Ligne (HAL) (Open Access)
ProQuest Central

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Similar Estimates of Temperature Impacts on Global Wheat Yield by Three Independent Methods

Copyright Nature Publishing Group Dec 2016 ;Attribution ;Wageningen University & Research ;ISSN: 1758-678X ;EISSN: 1758-6798 ;DOI: 10.1038/nclimate3115

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