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A debt sustainability analysis of the czech republic and the slovak republic: a non parametric approach

E+M Ekonomie a Management, 2015-01, Vol.18 (3), p.18-29 [Peer Reviewed Journal]

COPYRIGHT 2015 Technical University of Liberec ;ISSN: 1212-3609 ;ISSN: 0002-8282 ;ISSN: 0092-2102 ;ISSN: 0032-3233 ;ISSN: 1336-8818 ;ISSN: 0165-1889 ;ISSN: 0176-2680 ;ISSN: 1612-314X ;ISSN: 1804-7971 ;ISSN: 1464-3545 ;ISSN: 0013-3035 ;ISSN: 1573-708X ;EISSN: 2336-5064 ;EISSN: 1879-1743 ;DOI: 10.15240/tul/001/2015-3-002

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  • Title:
    A debt sustainability analysis of the czech republic and the slovak republic: a non parametric approach
  • Author: Farkasovsky, Vlastimil ; Lawson, Colin William ; Zimkova, Emilia
  • Subjects: Analysis ; Czech Republic ; Debt ; Economic aspects ; Forecasts and trends ; GDP ; Gross Domestic Product ; Inflation rate ; Interest rates ; National debt ; Public finance ; Ratios ; Recession ; Recessions ; Slovakia ; Studies ; Sustainability ; Sustainable development
  • Is Part Of: E+M Ekonomie a Management, 2015-01, Vol.18 (3), p.18-29
  • Description: Surging public debt since the Great Recession has focused increasing attention on the issue of debt sustainability. This paper provides debt sustainability analyses for the Czech Republic and Slovakia by estimating their public debt to GDP, and primary balance to GDP ratios up until 2022 under three different projections. The first, labelled the baseline projection, predicts their debt ratios to 2022, if neither their public debt to GDP ratios nor their primary balance to GDP ratios change. This projection uses the official forecasts of the key variables. The second projection answers the question of how much the two counties have to consolidate, measured by their primary balance to GDP ratios, if they want to hold their public debt to GDP ratios at their current levels. The third projection answers the question of how much the countries have to consolidate if they aim to reattain their December 2008 pre-crisis public debt to GDP ratios. All three projections are made for the same five scenarios, which cover a status quo case, where official forecasts are realized, and both optimistic and pessimistic scenarios for growth and consolidation outcomes. The paper's novelty lies in its development of an existing non-parametric methodology to encompass iterative numerical solution methods to assess public debt sustainability. This allows a richer set of results to be obtained, for example estimates for the required level of the public debt to GDP ratio, and the primary balance to GDP ratio, taking account of variables such as nominal interest rates, yields to maturity on public debt, inflation rates and average maturities of debt.
  • Publisher: Liberec: Technical University of Liberec
  • Language: English;Czech
  • Identifier: ISSN: 1212-3609
    ISSN: 0002-8282
    ISSN: 0092-2102
    ISSN: 0032-3233
    ISSN: 1336-8818
    ISSN: 0165-1889
    ISSN: 0176-2680
    ISSN: 1612-314X
    ISSN: 1804-7971
    ISSN: 1464-3545
    ISSN: 0013-3035
    ISSN: 1573-708X
    EISSN: 2336-5064
    EISSN: 1879-1743
    DOI: 10.15240/tul/001/2015-3-002
  • Source: ProQuest Central
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