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Climate change increases cross-species viral transmission risk

Nature (London), 2022-07, Vol.607 (7919), p.555-562 [Peer Reviewed Journal]

2022. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited. ;Copyright Nature Publishing Group Jul 21, 2022 ;ISSN: 0028-0836 ;EISSN: 1476-4687 ;DOI: 10.1038/s41586-022-04788-w ;PMID: 35483403

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Title:
Climate change increases cross-species viral transmission risk
Author: Carlson, Colin J ; Albery, Gregory F ; Merow, Cory ; Trisos, Christopher H ; Zipfel, Casey M ; Eskew, Evan A ; Olival, Kevin J ; Ross, Noam ; Bansal, Shweta
Subjects: Animal Migration ; Animals ; Biodiversity ; Chiroptera - virology ; Climate and land use ; Climate change ; Climate Change - statistics & numerical data ; Dispersal ; Environmental changes ; Environmental Monitoring ; Hot spots ; Human population density ; Human populations ; Humans ; Land use ; Mammals ; Mammals - classification ; Mammals - virology ; New combinations ; Pathogens ; Phylogeography ; Population density ; Risk Assessment ; Species ; Tropical Climate ; Tropical environment ; Tropical environments ; Viral Zoonoses - epidemiology ; Viral Zoonoses - transmission ; Viral Zoonoses - virology ; Viruses ; Viruses - isolation & purification ; Zoonoses
Is Part Of: Nature (London), 2022-07, Vol.607 (7919), p.555-562
Description: At least 10,000 virus species have the ability to infect humans but, at present, the vast majority are circulating silently in wild mammals . However, changes in climate and land use will lead to opportunities for viral sharing among previously geographically isolated species of wildlife . In some cases, this will facilitate zoonotic spillover-a mechanistic link between global environmental change and disease emergence. Here we simulate potential hotspots of future viral sharing, using a phylogeographical model of the mammal-virus network, and projections of geographical range shifts for 3,139 mammal species under climate-change and land-use scenarios for the year 2070. We predict that species will aggregate in new combinations at high elevations, in biodiversity hotspots, and in areas of high human population density in Asia and Africa, causing the cross-species transmission of their associated viruses an estimated 4,000 times. Owing to their unique dispersal ability, bats account for the majority of novel viral sharing and are likely to share viruses along evolutionary pathways that will facilitate future emergence in humans. Notably, we find that this ecological transition may already be underway, and holding warming under 2 °C within the twenty-first century will not reduce future viral sharing. Our findings highlight an urgent need to pair viral surveillance and discovery efforts with biodiversity surveys tracking the range shifts of species, especially in tropical regions that contain the most zoonoses and are experiencing rapid warming.
Publisher: England: Nature Publishing Group
Language: English
Identifier: ISSN: 0028-0836
EISSN: 1476-4687
DOI: 10.1038/s41586-022-04788-w
PMID: 35483403
Source: ProQuest One Psychology
MEDLINE
ProQuest Central

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Climate change increases cross-species viral transmission risk

2022. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited. ;Copyright Nature Publishing Group Jul 21, 2022 ;ISSN: 0028-0836 ;EISSN: 1476-4687 ;DOI: 10.1038/s41586-022-04788-w ;PMID: 35483403

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