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Sensitivity of flood frequency analysis to data record, statistical model, and parameter estimation methods: An evaluation over the contiguous United States

Journal of flood risk management, 2020-03, Vol.13 (1), p.n/a [Peer Reviewed Journal]

2019 The Authors. published by Chartered Institution of Water and Environmental Management and John Wiley & Sons Ltd. ;2020 The Chartered Institution of Water and Environmental Management (CIWEM) and John Wiley & Sons Ltd ;ISSN: 1753-318X ;EISSN: 1753-318X ;DOI: 10.1111/jfr3.12580

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Title:
Sensitivity of flood frequency analysis to data record, statistical model, and parameter estimation methods: An evaluation over the contiguous United States
Author: Hu, Lanxin ; Nikolopoulos, Efthymios I. ; Marra, Francesco ; Anagnostou, Emmanouil N.
Subjects: AMS ; Catchment area ; Catchments ; Data analysis ; distribution ; Estimates ; Estimating techniques ; Extreme value distribution ; Extreme values ; Flood frequency ; Flood frequency analysis ; Floods ; Frequency ; Frequency analysis ; Frequency estimation ; Hydrologic data ; Hydrology ; Mathematical models ; Maximum likelihood estimation ; Parameter estimation ; Parameter uncertainty ; PDS ; Records ; River discharge ; sample size ; sensitivity ; Sensitivity analysis ; Statistical analysis ; Statistical methods ; Statistical models ; Uncertainty
Is Part Of: Journal of flood risk management, 2020-03, Vol.13 (1), p.n/a
Description: ABSTRACT The current statistical methods applied in flood frequency analysis require long data records to obtain reliable estimates, particularly for long return periods. Moreover, the choice of the statistical model and the parameter estimation procedure may introduce uncertainty in the estimates. In this work, we investigate the sensitivity of flood frequency analysis to various sample sizes, statistical models, and parameter estimation methods over six major hydrological regions in the contiguous United States. Results show that flood frequency estimates based on annual maximum series approach convergence to the reference values (estimates derived from 70 years record) in terms of median for 35‐year or longer records. However, the uncertainty remains significant and a record of 35 years (20 years) is associated with ~50% (100%) larger uncertainty on the estimated 100‐year flood. The generalised extreme value distribution combined with maximum likelihood estimation method is associated with the largest uncertainty, while the log‐Pearson type III exhibits comparable bias and smaller uncertainty. Application of the partial duration series approach to 20‐year records shows no significant advantage. Our findings suggest that the hydroclimatic characteristics of the catchments exhibit limited impact on the uncertainty.
Publisher: Oxford, UK: Blackwell Publishing Ltd
Language: English
Identifier: ISSN: 1753-318X
EISSN: 1753-318X
DOI: 10.1111/jfr3.12580
Source: Journals@Ovid Open Access Journal Collection Rolling
DOAJ Directory of Open Access Journals

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Sensitivity of flood frequency analysis to data record, statistical model, and parameter estimation methods: An evaluation over the contiguous United States

2019 The Authors. published by Chartered Institution of Water and Environmental Management and John Wiley & Sons Ltd. ;2020 The Chartered Institution of Water and Environmental Management (CIWEM) and John Wiley & Sons Ltd ;ISSN: 1753-318X ;EISSN: 1753-318X ;DOI: 10.1111/jfr3.12580

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