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First Impressions Matter: A Model of Confirmatory Bias

The Quarterly journal of economics, 1999-02, Vol.114 (1), p.37-82 [Peer Reviewed Journal]

Copyright 1999 President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology ;1999 by the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology 1999 ;COPYRIGHT 1999 Oxford University Press ;Copyright MIT Press Journals Feb 1999 ;ISSN: 0033-5533 ;EISSN: 1531-4650 ;DOI: 10.1162/003355399555945 ;CODEN: QJECAT

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Title:
First Impressions Matter: A Model of Confirmatory Bias
Author: Rabin, Matthew ; Schrag, Joel L.
Subjects: Analysis ; Bayesian analysis ; Bayesian statistical decision theory ; Bias ; Consumer behavior ; Consumer preferences ; Decision theory ; Economic aspects ; Economic models ; Economic theory ; Economics ; Empirical evidence ; First impressions (Psychology) ; Hypotheses ; Information processing ; Information technology ; Information theory ; Intuition ; Investment risk ; Personality psychology ; Psychological research ; Research biases ; Social aspects ; Social choice ; Social psychology ; Studies ; Trials ; Uncertainty (Information theory)
Is Part Of: The Quarterly journal of economics, 1999-02, Vol.114 (1), p.37-82
Description: Psychological research indicates that people have a cognitive bias that leads them to misinterpret new information as supporting previously held hypotheses. We show in a simple model that such confirmatory bias induces overconfidence: given any probabilistic assessment by an agent that one of two hypotheses is true, the appropriate beliefs would deem it less likely to be true. Indeed, the hypothesis that the agent believes in may be more likely to be wrong than right. We also show that the agent may come to believe with near certainty in a false hypothesis despite receiving an infinite amount of information.
Publisher: Cambridge, Mass. [etc.]: MIT Press
Language: English
Identifier: ISSN: 0033-5533
EISSN: 1531-4650
DOI: 10.1162/003355399555945
CODEN: QJECAT
Source: Alma/SFX Local Collection

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First Impressions Matter: A Model of Confirmatory Bias

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