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Should Longtermists Recommend Hastening Extinction Rather Than Delaying It?

The Monist, 2024-04, Vol.107 (2), p.130-145 [Peer Reviewed Journal]

The Author(s), 2024. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Monist 2024 ;ISSN: 0026-9662 ;EISSN: 2153-3601 ;DOI: 10.1093/monist/onae003

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  • Title:
    Should Longtermists Recommend Hastening Extinction Rather Than Delaying It?
  • Author: Pettigrew, Richard
  • Is Part Of: The Monist, 2024-04, Vol.107 (2), p.130-145
  • Description: Abstract Longtermists argue we should devote much of our resources to raising the probability of a long happy future for sentient beings. But most interventions that raise that probability also raise the probability of a long miserable future, even if they raise the latter by a smaller amount. If we choose by maximising expected utility, this isn’t a problem; but, if we use a risk-averse decision rule, it is. I show that, with the same probabilities and utilities, a risk-averse decision theory tells us to hasten human extinction, not delay it. What’s more, I argue that morality requires us to use a risk-averse decision theory. I present this not as an argument for hastening extinction, but as a challenge to longtermism.
  • Publisher: US: Oxford University Press
  • Language: English
  • Identifier: ISSN: 0026-9662
    EISSN: 2153-3601
    DOI: 10.1093/monist/onae003
  • Source: Oxford Open (Open Access)
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