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Land surface models systematically overestimate the intensity, duration and magnitude of seasonal-scale evaporative droughts

Environmental research letters, 2016-10, Vol.11 (10), p.104012 [Peer Reviewed Journal]

2016 IOP Publishing Ltd ;2016. This work is published under http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/ (the “License”). Notwithstanding the ProQuest Terms and Conditions, you may use this content in accordance with the terms of the License. ;ISSN: 1748-9326 ;EISSN: 1748-9326 ;DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/11/10/104012 ;CODEN: ERLNAL

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  • Title:
    Land surface models systematically overestimate the intensity, duration and magnitude of seasonal-scale evaporative droughts
  • Author: Ukkola, A M ; De Kauwe, M G ; Pitman, A J ; Best, M J ; Abramowitz, G ; Haverd, V ; Decker, M ; Haughton, N
  • Subjects: Climate change ; Climate models ; Drought ; ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES ; evaporative drought ; Evapotranspiration ; Fluxes ; FLUXNET ; Heat tolerance ; heat waves ; land surface models ; Simulation ; Soil moisture ; Water resources
  • Is Part Of: Environmental research letters, 2016-10, Vol.11 (10), p.104012
  • Description: Land surface models (LSMs) must accurately simulate observed energy and water fluxes during droughts in order to provide reliable estimates of future water resources. We evaluated 8 different LSMs (14 model versions) for simulating evapotranspiration (ET) during periods of evaporative drought (Edrought) across six flux tower sites. Using an empirically defined Edrought threshold (a decline in ET below the observed 15th percentile), we show that LSMs simulated 58 Edrought days per year, on average, across the six sites, ∼3 times as many as the observed 20 d. The simulated Edrought magnitude was ∼8 times greater than observed and twice as intense. Our findings point to systematic biases across LSMs when simulating water and energy fluxes under water-stressed conditions. The overestimation of key Edrought characteristics undermines our confidence in the models' capability in simulating realistic drought responses to climate change and has wider implications for phenomena sensitive to soil moisture, including heat waves.
  • Publisher: Bristol: IOP Publishing
  • Language: English
  • Identifier: ISSN: 1748-9326
    EISSN: 1748-9326
    DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/11/10/104012
    CODEN: ERLNAL
  • Source: IOP Publishing
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