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Demand Learning and Firm Dynamics: Evidence from Exporters

The review of economics and statistics, 2019-03, Vol.101 (1), p.91-106 [Peer Reviewed Journal]

Distributed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License ;ISSN: 0034-6535 ;EISSN: 1530-9142 ;DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_00731

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  • Title:
    Demand Learning and Firm Dynamics: Evidence from Exporters
  • Author: Berman, Nicolas ; Rebeyrol, Vincent ; Vicard, Vincent
  • Subjects: Economics and Finance ; Humanities and Social Sciences ; Mathematics
  • Is Part Of: The review of economics and statistics, 2019-03, Vol.101 (1), p.91-106
  • Description: This paper provides direct evidence that learning about demand is an important driver of firms’ dynamics. We present a model of Bayesian learning in which firms are uncertain about idiosyncratic demand in each market and update their beliefs as noisy information arrives. Firms update their beliefs to a given demand shock more, the younger they are. We test and empirically confirm this prediction, using the structure of the model, together with exporter-level data, to identify demand shocks and the firms’ beliefs about future demand. Consistent with theory, we also find the learning process to be weakened in more uncertain environments.
  • Publisher: Massachusetts Institute of Technology Press (MIT Press)
  • Language: English
  • Identifier: ISSN: 0034-6535
    EISSN: 1530-9142
    DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_00731
  • Source: HAL SHS: Archive ouverte en Sciences de l'Homme et de la Société (Open Access)
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