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A stochastic multi-host model for West Nile virus transmission

Journal of biological dynamics, 2024-12, Vol.18 (1), p.2293780-2293780 [Peer Reviewed Journal]

ISSN: 1751-3758 ;EISSN: 1751-3766 ;DOI: 10.1080/17513758.2023.2293780 ;PMID: 38153263

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  • Title:
    A stochastic multi-host model for West Nile virus transmission
  • Author: Horton, Emily B ; Robertson, Suzanne L
  • Subjects: 60J80 ; Animals ; Birds ; continuous-time Markov chain ; host heterogeneity ; Insect Vectors ; Models, Biological ; multitype branching process ; probability of disease extinction ; West Nile Fever - epidemiology ; West Nile virus
  • Is Part Of: Journal of biological dynamics, 2024-12, Vol.18 (1), p.2293780-2293780
  • Description: When initially introduced into a susceptible population, a disease may die out or result in a major outbreak. We present a Continuous-Time Markov Chain model for enzootic WNV transmission between two avian host species and a single vector, and use multitype branching process theory to determine the probability of disease extinction based upon the type of infected individual initially introducing the disease into the population - an exposed vector, infectious vector, or infectious host of either species. We explore how the likelihood of disease extinction depends on the ability of each host species to transmit WNV, vector biting rates on host species, and the relative abundance of host species, as well as vector abundance. Theoretical predictions are compared to the outcome of stochastic simulations. We find the community composition of hosts and vectors, as well as the means of disease introduction, can greatly affect the probability of disease extinction.
  • Publisher: England: Taylor & Francis Group
  • Language: English
  • Identifier: ISSN: 1751-3758
    EISSN: 1751-3766
    DOI: 10.1080/17513758.2023.2293780
    PMID: 38153263
  • Source: Taylor & Francis Open Access Journals
    MEDLINE
    Alma/SFX Local Collection
    ProQuest Central
    DOAJ Directory of Open Access Journals
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