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Consensus on consensus: a synthesis of consensus estimates on human-caused global warming

Environmental research letters, 2016-04, Vol.11 (4), p.48002-48008 [Peer Reviewed Journal]

2016 IOP Publishing Ltd ;2016. This work is published under http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/ (the “License”). Notwithstanding the ProQuest Terms and Conditions, you may use this content in accordance with the terms of the License. ;ISSN: 1748-9326 ;EISSN: 1748-9326 ;DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/11/4/048002 ;CODEN: ERLNAL

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  • Title:
    Consensus on consensus: a synthesis of consensus estimates on human-caused global warming
  • Author: Cook, John ; Oreskes, Naomi ; Doran, Peter T ; Anderegg, William R L ; Verheggen, Bart ; Maibach, Ed W ; Carlton, J Stuart ; Lewandowsky, Stephan ; Skuce, Andrew G ; Green, Sarah A ; Nuccitelli, Dana ; Jacobs, Peter ; Richardson, Mark ; Winkler, Bärbel ; Painting, Rob ; Rice, Ken
  • Subjects: anthropogenic global warming ; Climate change ; Geologists ; Global warming ; Plate tectonics ; Polls & surveys ; scientific consensus ; Scientific papers ; Scientists ; Tectonics
  • Is Part Of: Environmental research letters, 2016-04, Vol.11 (4), p.48002-48008
  • Description: The consensus that humans are causing recent global warming is shared by 90%-100% of publishing climate scientists according to six independent studies by co-authors of this paper. Those results are consistent with the 97% consensus reported by Cook et al (Environ. Res. Lett. 8 024024) based on 11 944 abstracts of research papers, of which 4014 took a position on the cause of recent global warming. A survey of authors of those papers (N = 2412 papers) also supported a 97% consensus. Tol (2016 Environ. Res. Lett. 11 048001) comes to a different conclusion using results from surveys of non-experts such as economic geologists and a self-selected group of those who reject the consensus. We demonstrate that this outcome is not unexpected because the level of consensus correlates with expertise in climate science. At one point, Tol also reduces the apparent consensus by assuming that abstracts that do not explicitly state the cause of global warming ('no position') represent non-endorsement, an approach that if applied elsewhere would reject consensus on well-established theories such as plate tectonics. We examine the available studies and conclude that the finding of 97% consensus in published climate research is robust and consistent with other surveys of climate scientists and peer-reviewed studies.
  • Publisher: Bristol: IOP Publishing
  • Language: English
  • Identifier: ISSN: 1748-9326
    EISSN: 1748-9326
    DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/11/4/048002
    CODEN: ERLNAL
  • Source: Geneva Foundation Free Medical Journals at publisher websites
    IOPscience (Open Access)
    Institute of Physics Open Access Journal Titles
    ROAD: Directory of Open Access Scholarly Resources
    ProQuest Central
    DOAJ Directory of Open Access Journals
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