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Outstanding Challenges in the Transferability of Ecological Models

Trends in ecology & evolution (Amsterdam), 2018-10, Vol.33 (10), p.790-802 [Peer Reviewed Journal]

Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved. ;Distributed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License ;ISSN: 0169-5347 ;EISSN: 1872-8383 ;DOI: 10.1016/j.tree.2018.08.001 ;PMID: 30166069

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Title:
Outstanding Challenges in the Transferability of Ecological Models
Author: Yates, Katherine L ; Bouchet, Phil J ; Caley, M Julian ; Mengersen, Kerrie ; Randin, Christophe F ; Parnell, Stephen ; Fielding, Alan H ; Bamford, Andrew J ; Ban, Stephen ; Barbosa, A Márcia ; Dormann, Carsten F ; Elith, Jane ; Embling, Clare B ; Ervin, Gary N ; Fisher, Rebecca ; Gould, Susan ; Graf, Roland F ; Gregr, Edward J ; Halpin, Patrick N ; Heikkinen, Risto K ; Heinänen, Stefan ; Jones, Alice R ; Krishnakumar, Periyadan K ; Lauria, Valentina ; Lozano-Montes, Hector ; Mannocci, Laura ; Mellin, Camille ; Mesgaran, Mohsen B ; Moreno-Amat, Elena ; Mormede, Sophie ; Novaczek, Emilie ; Oppel, Steffen ; Ortuño Crespo, Guillermo ; Peterson, A Townsend ; Rapacciuolo, Giovanni ; Roberts, Jason J ; Ross, Rebecca E ; Scales, Kylie L ; Schoeman, David ; Snelgrove, Paul ; Sundblad, Göran ; Thuiller, Wilfried ; Torres, Leigh G ; Verbruggen, Heroen ; Wang, Lifei ; Wenger, Seth ; Whittingham, Mark J ; Zharikov, Yuri ; Zurell, Damaris ; Sequeira, Ana M M
Subjects: Biodiversity and Ecology ; Ecology - methods ; Environmental Sciences ; Models, Biological
Is Part Of: Trends in ecology & evolution (Amsterdam), 2018-10, Vol.33 (10), p.790-802
Description: Predictive models are central to many scientific disciplines and vital for informing management in a rapidly changing world. However, limited understanding of the accuracy and precision of models transferred to novel conditions (their 'transferability') undermines confidence in their predictions. Here, 50 experts identified priority knowledge gaps which, if filled, will most improve model transfers. These are summarized into six technical and six fundamental challenges, which underlie the combined need to intensify research on the determinants of ecological predictability, including species traits and data quality, and develop best practices for transferring models. Of high importance is the identification of a widely applicable set of transferability metrics, with appropriate tools to quantify the sources and impacts of prediction uncertainty under novel conditions.
Publisher: England: Elsevier
Language: English
Identifier: ISSN: 0169-5347
EISSN: 1872-8383
DOI: 10.1016/j.tree.2018.08.001
PMID: 30166069
Source: Hyper Article en Ligne (HAL) (Open Access)

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Outstanding Challenges in the Transferability of Ecological Models

Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved. ;Distributed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License ;ISSN: 0169-5347 ;EISSN: 1872-8383 ;DOI: 10.1016/j.tree.2018.08.001 ;PMID: 30166069

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