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Connections of climate change and variability to large and extreme forest fires in southeast Australia

Communications earth & environment, 2021-01, Vol.2 (1), Article 8 [Peer Reviewed Journal]

The Author(s) 2021 ;The Author(s) 2021. This work is published under http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (the “License”). Notwithstanding the ProQuest Terms and Conditions, you may use this content in accordance with the terms of the License. ;ISSN: 2662-4435 ;EISSN: 2662-4435 ;DOI: 10.1038/s43247-020-00065-8

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  • Title:
    Connections of climate change and variability to large and extreme forest fires in southeast Australia
  • Author: Abram, Nerilie J. ; Henley, Benjamin J. ; Sen Gupta, Alex ; Lippmann, Tanya J. R. ; Clarke, Hamish ; Dowdy, Andrew J. ; Sharples, Jason J. ; Nolan, Rachael H. ; Zhang, Tianran ; Wooster, Martin J. ; Wurtzel, Jennifer B. ; Meissner, Katrin J. ; Pitman, Andrew J. ; Ukkola, Anna M. ; Murphy, Brett P. ; Tapper, Nigel J. ; Boer, Matthias M.
  • Subjects: 704/106/694/2739 ; 704/4111 ; Climate change ; Climate change mitigation ; Climate variability ; Compounding effects ; Earth and Environmental Science ; Earth Sciences ; Environment ; Environmental risk ; Fire hazards ; Forest & brush fires ; Forest fires ; Review Article ; Trends ; Variability ; Wildfires
  • Is Part Of: Communications earth & environment, 2021-01, Vol.2 (1), Article 8
  • Description: The 2019/20 Black Summer bushfire disaster in southeast Australia was unprecedented: the extensive area of forest burnt, the radiative power of the fires, and the extraordinary number of fires that developed into extreme pyroconvective events were all unmatched in the historical record. Australia’s hottest and driest year on record, 2019, was characterised by exceptionally dry fuel loads that primed the landscape to burn when exposed to dangerous fire weather and ignition. The combination of climate variability and long-term climate trends generated the climate extremes experienced in 2019, and the compounding effects of two or more modes of climate variability in their fire-promoting phases (as occurred in 2019) has historically increased the chances of large forest fires occurring in southeast Australia. Palaeoclimate evidence also demonstrates that fire-promoting phases of tropical Pacific and Indian ocean variability are now unusually frequent compared with natural variability in pre-industrial times. Indicators of forest fire danger in southeast Australia have already emerged outside of the range of historical experience, suggesting that projections made more than a decade ago that increases in climate-driven fire risk would be detectable by 2020, have indeed eventuated. The multiple climate change contributors to fire risk in southeast Australia, as well as the observed non-linear escalation of fire extent and intensity, raise the likelihood that fire events may continue to rapidly intensify in the future. Improving local and national adaptation measures while also pursuing ambitious global climate change mitigation efforts would provide the best strategy for limiting further increases in fire risk in southeast Australia. Multiple climate contributors to fire risk in southeast Australia have led to an increase in fire extent and intensity over the past decades that will likely continue into the future, suggests a synthesis of climate variability, long-term trends and palaeoclimatic evidence.
  • Publisher: London: Nature Publishing Group UK
  • Language: English
  • Identifier: ISSN: 2662-4435
    EISSN: 2662-4435
    DOI: 10.1038/s43247-020-00065-8
  • Source: SpringerOpen
    ProQuest Central
    DOAJ Directory of Open Access Journals
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