Language:

Forecasting seasonal outbreaks of influenza

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences - PNAS, 2012-12, Vol.109 (50), p.20425-20430 [Peer Reviewed Journal]

copyright © 1993-2008 National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America ;Copyright National Academy of Sciences Dec 11, 2012 ;ISSN: 0027-8424 ;EISSN: 1091-6490 ;DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1208772109 ;PMID: 23184969

Full text available

Citations Cited by

Actions
1. Add to My Research
2. Remove from My Research
3. E-mail
4. Print
5. Permalink
6. Citation
7. EasyBib
8. EndNote
9. RefWorks
10. Delicious
11. Export RIS
12. Export BibTeX

Title:
Forecasting seasonal outbreaks of influenza
Author: Shaman, Jeffrey ; Karspeck, Alicia
Subjects: Analytical forecasting ; Biological Sciences ; Climate models ; Computational Biology ; Computer Simulation ; Disease models ; Disease Outbreaks - statistics & numerical data ; Epidemics ; Forecasting - methods ; Humans ; Humidity ; Infections ; Infectious diseases ; Influenza ; Influenza, Human - epidemiology ; Internet ; Mathematical independent variables ; Modeling ; Models, Statistical ; New York City - epidemiology ; Parametric models ; Physical Sciences ; prediction ; Retrospective Studies ; Seasons ; temperate zones ; Weather ; Weather forecasting
Is Part Of: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences - PNAS, 2012-12, Vol.109 (50), p.20425-20430
Description: Influenza recurs seasonally in temperate regions of the world; however, our ability to predict the timing, duration, and magnitude of local seasonal outbreaks of influenza remains limited. Here we develop a framework for initializing real-time forecasts of seasonal influenza outbreaks, using a data assimilation technique commonly applied in numerical weather prediction. The availability of real-time, web-based estimates of local influenza infection rates makes this type of quantitative forecasting possible. Retrospective ensemble forecasts are generated on a weekly basis following assimilation of these web-based estimates for the 2003–2008 influenza seasons in New York City. The findings indicate that real-time skillful predictions of peak timing can be made more than 7 wk in advance of the actual peak. In addition, confidence in those predictions can be inferred from the spread of the forecast ensemble. This work represents an initial step in the development of a statistically rigorous system for real-time forecast of seasonal influenza.
Publisher: United States: National Academy of Sciences
Language: English
Identifier: ISSN: 0027-8424
EISSN: 1091-6490
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1208772109
PMID: 23184969
Source: Open Access: PubMed Central
GFMER Free Medical Journals
MEDLINE

Back to results list


INSPIRE LIBRARY - TON DUC THANG UNIVERSITY	(84-028) 37 755 057	Feedback
19 Nguyen Huu Tho St. Dist.7, HCM	thuvien@tdtu.edu.vn	Feedback

Forecasting seasonal outbreaks of influenza

copyright © 1993-2008 National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America ;Copyright National Academy of Sciences Dec 11, 2012 ;ISSN: 0027-8424 ;EISSN: 1091-6490 ;DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1208772109 ;PMID: 23184969

Searching Remote Databases, Please Wait