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Serum markers of biological ageing provide long-term prediction of life expectancy—a longitudinal analysis in middle-aged and older German adults

Age and ageing, 2022-02, Vol.51 (2) [Peer Reviewed Journal]

The Author(s) 2022. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Geriatrics Society. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com 2021 ;The Author(s) 2022. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Geriatrics Society. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com. ;The Author(s) 2022. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Geriatrics Society. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com ;ISSN: 0002-0729 ;EISSN: 1468-2834 ;DOI: 10.1093/ageing/afab271 ;PMID: 35150586

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  • Title:
    Serum markers of biological ageing provide long-term prediction of life expectancy—a longitudinal analysis in middle-aged and older German adults
  • Author: Srour, Bernard ; Hynes, Lucas Cory ; Johnson, Theron ; Kühn, Tilman ; Katzke, Verena A ; Kaaks, Rudolf
  • Subjects: Aged ; Aging ; Biological markers ; Biomarkers ; Body mass index ; Brain natriuretic peptide ; C-reactive protein ; Cancer ; Cohort analysis ; Cohort Studies ; Cystatin ; Diabetes ; Diabetes mellitus ; Differentiation ; Female ; Hemoglobin ; Humans ; Hypertension ; Life Expectancy ; Life span ; Lifestyles ; Male ; Middle age ; Middle Aged ; Middle aged men ; Middle aged people ; Middle aged women ; Mortality ; Older people ; Older women ; Physical activity ; Premature mortality ; Prospective Studies ; Risk Factors ; Serum ; Smoking ; Women
  • Is Part Of: Age and ageing, 2022-02, Vol.51 (2)
  • Description: Abstract Background lifestyle behaviours and chronic co-morbidities are leading risk factors for premature mortality and collectively predict wide variability in individual life expectancy (LE). We investigated whether a pre-selected panel of five serum markers of biological ageing could improve predicting the long-term mortality risk and LE in middle-aged and older women and men. Methods we conducted a case-cohort study (n = 5,789 among which there were 2,571 deaths) within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer-Heidelberg cohort, a population cohort of middle-aged and older individuals, followed over a median duration of 18 years. Gompertz models were used to compute multi-adjusted associations of growth differentiation factor-15, N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide, glycated haemoglobin A1c, C-reactive protein and cystatin-C with mortality risk. Areas under estimated Gompertz survival curves were used to estimate the LE of individuals using a model with lifestyle-related risk factors only (smoking history, body mass index, waist circumference, alcohol, physical inactivity, diabetes and hypertension), or with lifestyle factors plus the ageing-related markers. Results a model including only lifestyle-related factors predicted a LE difference of 16.8 [95% confidence interval: 15.9; 19.1] years in men and 9.87 [9.20; 13.1] years in women aged ≥60 years by comparing individuals in the highest versus the lowest quintiles of estimated mortality risk. Including the ageing-related biomarkers in the model increased these differences up to 22.7 [22.3; 26.9] years in men and 14.00 [12.9; 18.2] years in women. Conclusions serum markers of ageing are potentially strong predictors for long-term mortality risk in a general population sample of older and middle-aged individuals and may help to identify individuals at higher risk of premature death, who could benefit from interventions to prevent further ageing-related health declines.
  • Publisher: England: Oxford University Press
  • Language: English
  • Identifier: ISSN: 0002-0729
    EISSN: 1468-2834
    DOI: 10.1093/ageing/afab271
    PMID: 35150586
  • Source: Freely Accessible Journals
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    Alma/SFX Local Collection

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