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Drivers of Dry Day Sensitivity to Increased CO 2

Geophysical research letters, 2023-07, Vol.50 (14) [Peer Reviewed Journal]

Distributed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License ;ISSN: 0094-8276 ;EISSN: 1944-8007 ;DOI: 10.1029/2023GL103200

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  • Title:
    Drivers of Dry Day Sensitivity to Increased CO 2
  • Author: Douville, H. ; Chadwick, R. ; Saint‐Lu, M. ; Medeiros, B.
  • Subjects: Climatology ; Earth Sciences ; Sciences of the Universe
  • Is Part Of: Geophysical research letters, 2023-07, Vol.50 (14)
  • Description: Abstract Persistent precipitation deficits are among the most impactful consequences of global warming. Here we focus on changes in the annual number of dry days (NDD) and in the annual maximum length of dry spells due to a quadrupling of atmospheric CO 2 . We use atmosphere‐only simulations to decompose the projected changes into additive contributions. A fast adjustment leads to a global increase in NDD despite notable regional exceptions (e.g., South Asia and Sahel). The effect of the uniform component of the surface ocean warming is model‐dependent but shapes the regional distribution of the NDD response in each model. Finally, the ocean warming pattern also contributes to large uncertainties, likely through contrasting changes in large‐scale circulation. Our results thus highlight the complexity of the NDD response, with policy‐relevant practical implications for mitigation and adaptation strategies. Plain Language Summary Global warming is expected to intensify the global water cycle, including the intensity and frequency of precipitation extremes. Yet, the response of the dry side of the daily precipitation distribution to increased atmospheric CO 2 has received so far less attention. Here we show that this response remains highly model‐dependent across the latest generation of global climate models. Furthermore, we use atmosphere‐only simulations to isolate different drivers of the precipitation response. A fast radiative and vegetation adjustment to increased CO 2 leads to an overall increase in the mean annual number of dry days (NDD) despite some regional exceptions. The effect of the ocean surface warming is highly model‐dependent, only partly due to the diversity of the simulated patterns of sea surface temperature anomalies. The regional response of NDD and of the maximum length of dry spells thus does not simply scale with global warming across the different models. Key Points AGCM simulations are used to split the dry day response to increased CO 2 into fast adjustment versus slower uniform and patterned SST effects None of the three components consistently dominates the global land response of dry days across the selected CMIP6 models The uniform SST warming dominates the regional anomalies, which however do not scale with global warming across the multi‐model ensemble
  • Publisher: American Geophysical Union
  • Language: English
  • Identifier: ISSN: 0094-8276
    EISSN: 1944-8007
    DOI: 10.1029/2023GL103200
  • Source: Hyper Article en Ligne (HAL) (Open Access)
    Wiley Blackwell AGU Digital Library
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