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Can natural disasters have positive consequences? Investigating the role of embodied technical change

Ecological economics, 2009-01, Vol.68 (3), p.777-786 [Peer Reviewed Journal]

Distributed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License ;ISSN: 0921-8009 ;EISSN: 1873-6106 ;DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2008.06.011

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  • Title:
    Can natural disasters have positive consequences? Investigating the role of embodied technical change
  • Author: Dumas, Patrice ; Hallegatte, Stephane
  • Subjects: Economics and Finance ; Embodied technical change Natural disasters Economic impacts ; Environmental Sciences ; Humanities and Social Sciences
  • Is Part Of: Ecological economics, 2009-01, Vol.68 (3), p.777-786
  • Description: It has been suggested that disasters might have positive economic consequences, through the accelerated replacement of capital. This possibility is referred to as the productivity effect. This effect is investigated using a model with embodied technical change. in this framework, disasters can influence the production level but cannot influence the growth rate, in the same way than the saving ratio in a Solow-like model. Depending on reconstruction quality, indeed, accounting for embodied technical change can either decrease or increase disaster costs, but is never able to turn disasters into positive events. Moreover, a better but slower reconstruction amplifies the short-term consequences of disasters, but pays off over the long-term. Regardless, the productivity effect cannot prevent the existence of a bifurcation when disaster damages exceed the reconstruction capacity, potentially leading to poverty traps. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
  • Publisher: Elsevier
  • Language: English
  • Identifier: ISSN: 0921-8009
    EISSN: 1873-6106
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2008.06.011
  • Source: HAL SHS: Archive ouverte en Sciences de l'Homme et de la Société (Open Access)
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