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Exploring the biophysical option space for feeding the world without deforestation

Nature communications, 2016-04, Vol.7 (1), p.11382-11382, Article 11382 [Peer Reviewed Journal]

Copyright Nature Publishing Group Apr 2016 ;Copyright © 2016, Nature Publishing Group, a division of Macmillan Publishers Limited. All Rights Reserved. 2016 Nature Publishing Group, a division of Macmillan Publishers Limited. All Rights Reserved. ;ISSN: 2041-1723 ;EISSN: 2041-1723 ;DOI: 10.1038/ncomms11382 ;PMID: 27092437

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Title:
Exploring the biophysical option space for feeding the world without deforestation
Author: Erb, Karl-Heinz ; Lauk, Christian ; Kastner, Thomas ; Mayer, Andreas ; Theurl, Michaela C ; Haberl, Helmut
Subjects: Animal Husbandry - methods ; Animal Husbandry - organization & administration ; Animal Husbandry - trends ; Biomass ; Conservation of Natural Resources - statistics & numerical data ; Crop Production - methods ; Crop Production - organization & administration ; Crop Production - trends ; Food Supply - methods ; Food Supply - statistics & numerical data ; Forecasting ; Forests ; Humans ; Models, Statistical
Is Part Of: Nature communications, 2016-04, Vol.7 (1), p.11382-11382, Article 11382
Description: Safeguarding the world's remaining forests is a high-priority goal. We assess the biophysical option space for feeding the world in 2050 in a hypothetical zero-deforestation world. We systematically combine realistic assumptions on future yields, agricultural areas, livestock feed and human diets. For each scenario, we determine whether the supply of crop products meets the demand and whether the grazing intensity stays within plausible limits. We find that many options exist to meet the global food supply in 2050 without deforestation, even at low crop-yield levels. Within the option space, individual scenarios differ greatly in terms of biomass harvest, cropland demand and grazing intensity, depending primarily on the quantitative and qualitative aspects of human diets. Grazing constraints strongly limit the option space. Without the option to encroach into natural or semi-natural land, trade volumes will rise in scenarios with globally converging diets, thereby decreasing the food self-sufficiency of many developing regions.
Publisher: England: Nature Publishing Group
Language: English
Identifier: ISSN: 2041-1723
EISSN: 2041-1723
DOI: 10.1038/ncomms11382
PMID: 27092437
Source: MEDLINE
PubMed Central
ProQuest Central
DOAJ Directory of Open Access Journals

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Exploring the biophysical option space for feeding the world without deforestation

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