skip to main content
Language:
Search Limited to: Search Limited to: Resource type Show Results with: Show Results with: Search type Index

impacts of climate change on river flood risk at the global scale

Climatic change, 2016-02, Vol.134 (3), p.387-401 [Peer Reviewed Journal]

The Author(s) 2014 ;Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2016 ;ISSN: 0165-0009 ;EISSN: 1573-1480 ;DOI: 10.1007/s10584-014-1084-5 ;CODEN: CLCHDX

Full text available

Citations Cited by
  • Title:
    impacts of climate change on river flood risk at the global scale
  • Author: Arnell, Nigel W ; Gosling, Simon N
  • Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences ; climate ; Climate change ; Climate Change/Climate Change Impacts ; Climate models ; cropland ; Datasets ; Earth and Environmental Science ; Earth Sciences ; Emissions ; Exposure ; Flood damage ; Floods ; Freshwater ; hydrologic models ; Hydrology ; Mathematical models ; people ; Population ; Precipitation ; Regions ; Risk ; Risk assessment ; Rivers ; surface temperature
  • Is Part Of: Climatic change, 2016-02, Vol.134 (3), p.387-401
  • Description: This paper presents an assessment of the implications of climate change for global river flood risk. It is based on the estimation of flood frequency relationships at a grid resolution of 0.5 × 0.5°, using a global hydrological model with climate scenarios derived from 21 climate models, together with projections of future population. Four indicators of the flood hazard are calculated; change in the magnitude and return period of flood peaks, flood-prone population and cropland exposed to substantial change in flood frequency, and a generalised measure of regional flood risk based on combining frequency curves with generic flood damage functions. Under one climate model, emissions and socioeconomic scenario (HadCM3 and SRES A1b), in 2050 the current 100-year flood would occur at least twice as frequently across 40 % of the globe, approximately 450 million flood-prone people and 430 thousand km² of flood-prone cropland would be exposed to a doubling of flood frequency, and global flood risk would increase by approximately 187 % over the risk in 2050 in the absence of climate change. There is strong regional variability (most adverse impacts would be in Asia), and considerable variability between climate models. In 2050, the range in increased exposure across 21 climate models under SRES A1b is 31–450 million people and 59 to 430 thousand km² of cropland, and the change in risk varies between −9 and +376 %. The paper presents impacts by region, and also presents relationships between change in global mean surface temperature and impacts on the global flood hazard. There are a number of caveats with the analysis; it is based on one global hydrological model only, the climate scenarios are constructed using pattern-scaling, and the precise impacts are sensitive to some of the assumptions in the definition and application.
  • Publisher: Dordrecht: Springer Netherlands
  • Language: English
  • Identifier: ISSN: 0165-0009
    EISSN: 1573-1480
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-014-1084-5
    CODEN: CLCHDX
  • Source: Springer OA刊
    ProQuest Central
Back to results list
INSPIRE LIBRARY - TON DUC THANG UNIVERSITY (84-028) 37 755 057 Feedback
19 Nguyen Huu Tho St. Dist.7, HCM thuvien@tdtu.edu.vn

Copyright © 2017 INSPIRE LIBRARY - TON DUC THANG UNIVERSITY

Searching Remote Databases, Please Wait