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Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 301 acute and chronic diseases and injuries in 188 countries, 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

The Lancet (British edition), 2015, Vol.386 (9995), p.743-800 [Peer Reviewed Journal]

Elsevier Ltd ;2015 Elsevier Ltd ;Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. ;Copyright Elsevier Limited Aug 22, 2015 ;Distributed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License ;Wageningen University & Research ;ISSN: 0140-6736 ;ISSN: 1474-547X ;EISSN: 1474-547X ;DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(15)60692-4 ;PMID: 26063472

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Title:
Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 301 acute and chronic diseases and injuries in 188 countries, 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
Author: Degenhardt, Louisa ; Erskine, Holly ; Ferrari, Alize J ; Fitzmaurice, Christina ; Graetz, Nicholas ; Hansen, Gillian M ; Laurie, Evan ; Liang, Xiofeng ; Ortblad, Katrina ; Sandar, Logan ; Abraham, Jerry P ; Abraham, Biju ; Abubakar, Ibrahim ; Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen ME ; Achoki, Tom ; Ademi, Zanfina ; Alam, Sayed Saidul ; Albittar, Mohammed I ; Alemu, Zewdie A ; Alla, Francois ; Anderson, Benjamin O ; Antonio, Carl Abelardo T ; Balalla, Shivanthi ; Barquera, Simon ; Basu, Sanjay ; Basu, Arindam ; Beghi, Ettore ; Bell, Michelle L ; Bensenor, Isabela M ; Borges, Guilherme ; Boyers, Lindsay N ; Briggs, Adam DM ; Buchbinder, Rachelle ; Burnett, Richard ; Campuzano, Julio C ; Catala-Lopez, Ferran ; Chang, Jung-Chen ; Christophi, Costas A ; Dandona, Lalit ; Deribe, Kebede ; Fay, Derek FJ ; Fowkes, F Gerry R ; Garcia-Guerra, Francisco A ; Gibney, Katherine B ; Gona, Philimon ; Gouda, Hebe N ; Hagan, Holly ; Pi, Ileana B Heredia ; Hoy, Damian G ; Huang, John J ; Husseini, Abdullatif ; Jonas, Jost B ; Karimkhani, Chante ; Khan, Gulfaraz ; Kieling, Christian ; Knibbs, Luke ; Lan, Qing ; Lim, Stephen ; Lind, Margaret ; Lindsay, M Patrice ; Lipshultz, Steven E ; Low, Nicola ; Lyons, Ronan A ; Mackay, Mark T ; Malekzadeh, Reza ; Mapoma, Christopher C ; McKee, Martin ; Mehndiratta, Man Mohan ; Miller, Ted R ; Mills, Edward J ; Moturi, Wilkister N ; Moyer, Madeline ; Naghavi, Paria ; Nand, Devina ; Ng, Marie ; Nhung, Nguyen T ; Norrving, Bo ; Nyakarahuka, Luke ; Pereira, David M ; Peterson, Carrie B ; Remuzzi, Giuseppe ; Riccio, Patricia M ; Richardson, Lee ; Rojas-Rueda, David ; Scarborough, Peter ; Seedat, Soraya ; Shackelford, Katya ; She, Jun ; Shibuya, Kenji ; Shinohara, Yukito ; Sindi, Shireen ; Stroumpoulis, Konstantinos ; Thomas, Elissa ; Thrift, Amanda G ; Traebert, Jefferson ; Wilkinson, James D ; Woldeyohannes, Solomon M ; Xu, Gelin ; Yentur, Gokalp K ; Zhang, Yong
Subjects: Acute Disease ; Acute Disease - epidemiology ; Adolescent ; Adult ; Age ; Age Distribution ; Aged ; Aged, 80 and over ; Chair Nutrition and Disease ; Charities ; Child ; Child, Preschool ; Chronic Disease ; Chronic Disease - epidemiology ; Comorbidity ; Cost of Illness ; Developed Countries ; Developed Countries - statistics & numerical data ; Developing Countries ; Developing Countries - statistics & numerical data ; Disabled Persons ; Disabled Persons - statistics & numerical data ; Disease ; Disorders ; Epidemiology ; Estimates ; Female ; Folkhälsovetenskap, global hälsa, socialmedicin och epidemiologi ; Global Health ; Global Health - statistics & numerical data ; Headache ; Health ; Health policy ; Health Sciences ; HIV ; HNE Nutrition and Disease ; HNE Voeding en Ziekte ; Human immunodeficiency virus ; Humans ; Hälsovetenskap ; Incidence ; Infant ; Infant, Newborn ; Infectious diseases ; Injuries ; Injury analysis ; Internal Medicine ; Life Sciences ; Male ; Mathematical analysis ; Medical and Health Sciences ; Medicin och hälsovetenskap ; Mental depression ; Mental disorders ; Middle Aged ; Mortality ; Neglected Diseases ; Neglected Diseases - epidemiology ; Neurological diseases ; Nutrition and Disease ; Pain ; Population growth ; Prevalence ; Public Health, Global Health, Social Medicine and Epidemiology ; Regression analysis ; Residence Characteristics ; Residence Characteristics - statistics & numerical data ; Respiratory diseases ; Santé publique et épidémiologie ; Sex Distribution ; Trends ; Upgrading ; VLAG ; Voeding en Ziekte ; Wounds and Injuries ; Wounds and Injuries - epidemiology ; Young Adult
Is Part Of: The Lancet (British edition), 2015, Vol.386 (9995), p.743-800
Description: Summary Background Up-to-date evidence about levels and trends in disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) is an essential input into global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013), we estimated these quantities for acute and chronic diseases and injuries for 188 countries between 1990 and 2013. Methods Estimates were calculated for disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and YLDs using GBD 2010 methods with some important refinements. Results for incidence of acute disorders and prevalence of chronic disorders are new additions to the analysis. Key improvements include expansion to the cause and sequelae list, updated systematic reviews, use of detailed injury codes, improvements to the Bayesian meta-regression method (DisMod-MR), and use of severity splits for various causes. An index of data representativeness, showing data availability, was calculated for each cause and impairment during three periods globally and at the country level for 2013. In total, 35 620 distinct sources of data were used and documented to calculated estimates for 301 diseases and injuries and 2337 sequelae. The comorbidity simulation provides estimates for the number of sequelae, concurrently, by individuals by country, year, age, and sex. Disability weights were updated with the addition of new population-based survey data from four countries. Findings Disease and injury were highly prevalent; only a small fraction of individuals had no sequelae. Comorbidity rose substantially with age and in absolute terms from 1990 to 2013. Incidence of acute sequelae were predominantly infectious diseases and short-term injuries, with over 2 billion cases of upper respiratory infections and diarrhoeal disease episodes in 2013, with the notable exception of tooth pain due to permanent caries with more than 200 million incident cases in 2013. Conversely, leading chronic sequelae were largely attributable to non-communicable diseases, with prevalence estimates for asymptomatic permanent caries and tension-type headache of 2·4 billion and 1·6 billion, respectively. The distribution of the number of sequelae in populations varied widely across regions, with an expected relation between age and disease prevalence. YLDs for both sexes increased from 537·6 million in 1990 to 764·8 million in 2013 due to population growth and ageing, whereas the age-standardised rate decreased little from 114·87 per 1000 people to 110·31 per 1000 people between 1990 and 2013. Leading causes of YLDs included low back pain and major depressive disorder among the top ten causes of YLDs in every country. YLD rates per person, by major cause groups, indicated the main drivers of increases were due to musculoskeletal, mental, and substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and chronic respiratory diseases; however HIV/AIDS was a notable driver of increasing YLDs in sub-Saharan Africa. Also, the proportion of disability-adjusted life years due to YLDs increased globally from 21·1% in 1990 to 31·2% in 2013. Interpretation Ageing of the world's population is leading to a substantial increase in the numbers of individuals with sequelae of diseases and injuries. Rates of YLDs are declining much more slowly than mortality rates. The non-fatal dimensions of disease and injury will require more and more attention from health systems. The transition to non-fatal outcomes as the dominant source of burden of disease is occurring rapidly outside of sub-Saharan Africa. Our results can guide future health initiatives through examination of epidemiological trends and a better understanding of variation across countries. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Publisher: England: Elsevier Ltd
Language: English
Identifier: ISSN: 0140-6736
ISSN: 1474-547X
EISSN: 1474-547X
DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(15)60692-4
PMID: 26063472
Source: ProQuest One Psychology
AUTh Library subscriptions: ProQuest Central
MEDLINE
SWEPUB Freely available online

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Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 301 acute and chronic diseases and injuries in 188 countries, 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

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