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Entropy Method for Decision-Making: Uncertainty Cycles in Tourism Demand

Entropy (Basel, Switzerland), 2021-10, Vol.23 (11), p.1370 [Peer Reviewed Journal]

2021 by the author. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). Notwithstanding the ProQuest Terms and Conditions, you may use this content in accordance with the terms of the License. ;2021 by the author. 2021 ;ISSN: 1099-4300 ;EISSN: 1099-4300 ;DOI: 10.3390/e23111370 ;PMID: 34828069

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  • Title:
    Entropy Method for Decision-Making: Uncertainty Cycles in Tourism Demand
  • Author: Ruiz Reina, Miguel Ángel
  • Subjects: Apartments ; cycle ; Decision making ; Demand ; Elasticity ; Empirical analysis ; Entropy ; forecasting ; GDP ; Gross Domestic Product ; Hotels ; Hotels & motels ; information theory ; randomness ; Shannon entropy ; Tourism ; Uncertainty
  • Is Part Of: Entropy (Basel, Switzerland), 2021-10, Vol.23 (11), p.1370
  • Description: A new methodology is presented for measuring, classifying and predicting the cycles of uncertainty that occur in temporary decision-making in the tourist accommodation market (apartments and hotels). Special attention is paid to the role of entropy and cycles in the process under the Adaptive Markets Hypothesis. The work scheme analyses random cycles from time to time, and in the frequency domain, the linear and nonlinear causality relationships between variables are studied. The period analysed is from January 2005 to December 2018; the following empirical results stand out: (1) On longer scales, the periodicity of the uncertainty of decision-making is between 6 and 12 months, respectively, for all the nationalities described. (2) The elasticity of demand for tourist apartments is approximately 1% due to changes in demand for tourist hotels. (3) The elasticity of the uncertainty factor is highly correlated with the country of origin of tourists visiting Spain. For example, it has been empirically shown that increases of 1% in uncertainty cause increases in the demand for apartments of 2.12% (worldwide), 3.05% (UK), 1.91% (Germany), 1.78% (France), 7.21% (Ireland), 3.61% (The Netherlands) respectively. This modelling has an explanatory capacity of 99% in all the models analysed.
  • Publisher: Basel: MDPI AG
  • Language: English
  • Identifier: ISSN: 1099-4300
    EISSN: 1099-4300
    DOI: 10.3390/e23111370
    PMID: 34828069
  • Source: GFMER Free Medical Journals
    PubMed Central
    Coronavirus Research Database
    ROAD: Directory of Open Access Scholarly Resources
    ProQuest Central
    DOAJ Directory of Open Access Journals
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