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Climate Change and Stability of Urban Infrastructure in Russian Permafrost Regions: Prognostic Assessment based on GCM Climate Projections

Geographical review, 2017-01, Vol.107 (1), p.125-142 [Peer Reviewed Journal]

2017 American Geographical Society of New York 2017 ;2017 American Geographical Society of New York ;Copyright © 2016 by the American Geographical Society of New York ;COPYRIGHT 2017 American Geographical Society ;COPYRIGHT 2017 Taylor & Francis Ltd. ;Copyright American Geographical Society Jan 2017 ;ISSN: 0016-7428 ;EISSN: 1931-0846 ;DOI: 10.1111/gere.12214 ;CODEN: GEORAD

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Title:
Climate Change and Stability of Urban Infrastructure in Russian Permafrost Regions: Prognostic Assessment based on GCM Climate Projections
Author: Shiklomanov, Nikolay I. ; Streletskiy, Dmitry A. ; Swales, Timothy B. ; Kokorev, Vasily A.
Subjects: Analysis ; Climate Change ; Climate models ; Construction ; Engineering ; Global temperature changes ; Infrastructure ; Infrastructure (Economics) ; Mechanical properties ; Migration ; Performance evaluation ; Permafrost ; Permafrost Infrastructure ; Precipitation ; Public infrastructure ; Russia ; Russian Arctic Cities ; Socioeconomic factors
Is Part Of: Geographical review, 2017-01, Vol.107 (1), p.125-142
Description: One of the most significant climate change impacts on arctic urban landscapes is the warming and degradation of permafrost, which negatively affects the structural integrity of infrastructure. We estimate potential changes in stability of Russian urban infrastructure built on permafrost in response to the projected climatic changes provided by six preselected General Circulation Models (GCMs) participated in the most recent Climate Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5). The analysis was conducted for the entire extent of the Russian permafrost-affected area. According to our analysis a significant (at least 25%) climate-induced reduction in the urban infrastructure stability throughout the Russian permafrost region should be expected by the mid-21st century. However, the high uncertainty, resulting from the GCM-produced climate projections, prohibits definitive conclusion about the rate and magnitude of potential climate impacts on permafrost infrastructure. Results presented in this paper can serve as guidelines for developing adequate adaptation and mitigation strategy for Russian northern cities.
Publisher: New York: Taylor & Francis
Language: English
Identifier: ISSN: 0016-7428
EISSN: 1931-0846
DOI: 10.1111/gere.12214
CODEN: GEORAD
Source: ProQuest Central

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Climate Change and Stability of Urban Infrastructure in Russian Permafrost Regions: Prognostic Assessment based on GCM Climate Projections

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