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A strategy to improve expert technology forecasts

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences - PNAS, 2021-05, Vol.118 (21), p.1 [Peer Reviewed Journal]

Copyright National Academy of Sciences May 25, 2021 ;2021 ;ISSN: 0027-8424 ;EISSN: 1091-6490 ;DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2021558118 ;PMID: 33990418

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  • Title:
    A strategy to improve expert technology forecasts
  • Author: Savage, Tamara ; Davis, Alex ; Fischhoff, Baruch ; Morgan, M Granger
  • Subjects: Decision making ; Physical Sciences ; Public policy ; Social factors ; Social Sciences ; Technology ; Technology adoption ; Technology utilization
  • Is Part Of: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences - PNAS, 2021-05, Vol.118 (21), p.1
  • Description: Forecasts of the future cost and performance of technologies are often used to support decision-making. However, retrospective reviews find that many forecasts made by experts are not very accurate and are often seriously overconfident, with realized values too frequently falling outside of forecasted ranges. Here, we outline a hybrid approach to expert elicitation that we believe might improve forecasts of future technologies. The proposed approach iteratively combines the judgments of technical domain experts with those of experts who are knowledgeable about broader issues of technology adoption and public policy. We motivate the approach with results from a pilot study designed to help forecasters think systematically about factors beyond the technology itself that may shape its future, such as policy, economic, and social factors. Forecasters who received briefings on these topics provided wider forecast intervals than those receiving no assistance.
  • Publisher: United States: National Academy of Sciences
  • Language: English
  • Identifier: ISSN: 0027-8424
    EISSN: 1091-6490
    DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2021558118
    PMID: 33990418
  • Source: GFMER Free Medical Journals
    PubMed Central
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