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Global food demand and the sustainable intensification of agriculture

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences - PNAS, 2011-12, Vol.108 (50), p.20260-20264 [Peer Reviewed Journal]

copyright © 1993—2008 National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America ;Copyright National Academy of Sciences Dec 13, 2011 ;ISSN: 0027-8424 ;EISSN: 1091-6490 ;DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1116437108 ;PMID: 22106295

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Title:
Global food demand and the sustainable intensification of agriculture
Author: Tilman, David ; Balzer, Christian ; Hill, Jason ; Befort, Belinda L
Subjects: agricultural land ; Agriculture ; Agriculture - methods ; Biological Sciences ; Carbon dioxide ; Climate ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Crop production ; Crops ; Crops, Agricultural - economics ; Emissions ; Environmental impact ; Environmental technology ; Farmlands ; Food crops ; Food demand ; Food Supply - economics ; foods ; Globalization ; Greenhouse gas emissions ; Greenhouse gases ; Gross Domestic Product ; income ; Internationality ; Land clearing ; Nitrogen ; protein content ; sustainable agricultural intensification ; Sustainable agriculture ; Technology transfer ; Trajectories
Is Part Of: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences - PNAS, 2011-12, Vol.108 (50), p.20260-20264
Description: Global food demand is increasing rapidly, as are the environmental impacts of agricultural expansion. Here, we project global demand for crop production in 2050 and evaluate the environmental impacts of alternative ways that this demand might be met. We find that per capita demand for crops, when measured as caloric or protein content of all crops combined, has been a similarly increasing function of per capita real income since 1960. This relationship forecasts a 100–110% increase in global crop demand from 2005 to 2050. Quantitative assessments show that the environmental impacts of meeting this demand depend on how global agriculture expands. If current trends of greater agricultural intensification in richer nations and greater land clearing (extensification) in poorer nations were to continue, ∼1 billion ha of land would be cleared globally by 2050, with CO2-C equivalent greenhouse gas emissions reaching ∼3 Gt y–1 and N use ∼250 Mt y–1 by then. In contrast, if 2050 crop demand was met by moderate intensification focused on existing croplands of underyielding nations, adaptation and transfer of high-yielding technologies to these croplands, and global technological improvements, our analyses forecast land clearing of only ∼0.2 billion ha, greenhouse gas emissions of ∼1 Gt y–1, and global N use of ∼225 Mt y–1. Efficient management practices could substantially lower nitrogen use. Attainment of high yields on existing croplands of underyielding nations is of great importance if global crop demand is to be met with minimal environmental impacts.
Publisher: United States: National Academy of Sciences
Language: English
Identifier: ISSN: 0027-8424
EISSN: 1091-6490
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1116437108
PMID: 22106295
Source: Geneva Foundation Free Medical Journals at publisher websites
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Global food demand and the sustainable intensification of agriculture

copyright © 1993—2008 National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America ;Copyright National Academy of Sciences Dec 13, 2011 ;ISSN: 0027-8424 ;EISSN: 1091-6490 ;DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1116437108 ;PMID: 22106295

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