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Armed-conflict risks enhanced by climate-related disasters in ethnically fractionalized countries

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences - PNAS, 2016-08, Vol.113 (33), p.9216-9221 [Tạp chí có phản biện]

Volumes 1–89 and 106–113, copyright as a collective work only; author(s) retains copyright to individual articles ;Copyright National Academy of Sciences Aug 16, 2016 ;ISSN: 0027-8424 ;ISSN: 1091-6490 ;EISSN: 1091-6490 ;DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1601611113 ;PMID: 27457927

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  • Nhan đề:
    Armed-conflict risks enhanced by climate-related disasters in ethnically fractionalized countries
  • Tác giả: Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich ; Donges, Jonathan F. ; Donner, Reik V. ; Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim
  • Chủ đề: Armed Conflicts ; Climate ; Climate Change ; climate-related natural disasters ; Conflict ; Developing Countries ; Disasters ; ethnic fractionalization ; event coincidence analysis ; Gross Domestic Product ; Humans ; Physical Sciences ; Risk ; Social Sciences ; Violence
  • Là 1 phần của: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences - PNAS, 2016-08, Vol.113 (33), p.9216-9221
  • Mô tả: Social and political tensions keep on fueling armed conflicts around the world. Although each conflict is the result of an individual context-specific mixture of interconnected factors, ethnicity appears to play a prominent and almost ubiquitous role in many of them. This overall state of affairs is likely to be exacerbated by anthropogenic climate change and in particular climate-related natural disasters. Ethnic divides might serve as predetermined conflict lines in case of rapidly emerging societal tensions arising from disruptive events like natural disasters. Here, we hypothesize that climate-related disaster occurrence enhances armed-conflict outbreak risk in ethnically fractionalized countries. Using event coincidence analysis, we test this hypothesis based on data on armed-conflict outbreaks and climate-related natural disasters for the period 1980–2010. Globally, we find a coincidence rate of 9% regarding armed-conflict outbreak and disaster occurrence such as heat waves or droughts. Our analysis also reveals that, during the period in question, about 23% of conflict outbreaks in ethnically highly fractionalized countries robustly coincide with climatic calamities. Although we do not report evidence that climate-related disasters act as direct triggers of armed conflicts, the disruptive nature of these events seems to play out in ethnically fractionalized societies in a particularly tragic way. This observation has important implications for future security policies as several of the world’s most conflict-prone regions, including North and Central Africa as well as Central Asia, are both exceptionally vulnerable to anthropogenic climate change and characterized by deep ethnic divides.
  • Nơi xuất bản: United States: National Academy of Sciences
  • Ngôn ngữ: English
  • Số nhận dạng: ISSN: 0027-8424
    ISSN: 1091-6490
    EISSN: 1091-6490
    DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1601611113
    PMID: 27457927
  • Nguồn: Freely Accessible Journals
    MEDLINE
    PubMed Central
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