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Estimated Projection of US Cancer Incidence and Death to 2040

JAMA network open, 2021-04, Vol.4 (4), p.e214708-e214708 [Peer Reviewed Journal]

2021. This work is published under https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (the “License”). Notwithstanding the ProQuest Terms and Conditions, you may use this content in accordance with the terms of the License. ;Copyright 2021 Rahib L et al. . ;ISSN: 2574-3805 ;EISSN: 2574-3805 ;DOI: 10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2021.4708 ;PMID: 33825840

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  • Title:
    Estimated Projection of US Cancer Incidence and Death to 2040
  • Author: Rahib, Lola ; Wehner, Mackenzie R ; Matrisian, Lynn M ; Nead, Kevin T
  • Subjects: Cancer ; Oncology ; Online Only ; Original Investigation ; Population growth
  • Is Part Of: JAMA network open, 2021-04, Vol.4 (4), p.e214708-e214708
  • Description: Coping with the current and future burden of cancer requires an in-depth understanding of trends in cancer incidences and deaths. Estimated projections of cancer incidences and deaths will be important to guide future research funding allocations, health care planning, and health policy efforts. To estimate cancer incidences and deaths in the United States to the year 2040. This cross-sectional study's estimated projection analysis used population growth projections and current population-based cancer incidence and death rates to calculate the changes in incidences and deaths to the year 2040. Cancer-specific incidences and deaths in the US were estimated for the most common cancer types. Demographic cancer-specific delay-adjusted incidence rates from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program were combined with US Census Bureau population growth projections (2016) and average annual percentage changes in incidence and death rates. Statistical analyses were performed from July 2020 to February 2021. Total cancer incidences and deaths to the year 2040. This study estimated that the most common cancers in 2040 will be breast (364 000 cases) with melanoma (219 000 cases) becoming the second most common cancer; lung, third (208 000 cases); colorectal remaining fourth (147 000 cases); and prostate cancer dropping to the fourteenth most common cancer (66 000 cases). Lung cancer (63 000 deaths) was estimated to continue as the leading cause of cancer-related death in 2040, with pancreatic cancer (46 000 deaths) and liver and intrahepatic bile duct cancer (41 000 deaths) surpassing colorectal cancer (34 000 deaths) to become the second and third most common causes of cancer-related death, respectively. Breast cancer (30 000 deaths) was estimated to decrease to the fifth most common cause of cancer death. These findings suggest that there will be marked changes in the landscape of cancer incidence and deaths by 2040.
  • Publisher: United States: American Medical Association
  • Language: English
  • Identifier: ISSN: 2574-3805
    EISSN: 2574-3805
    DOI: 10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2021.4708
    PMID: 33825840
  • Source: Journals@Ovid Open Access Journal Collection Rolling
    Alma/SFX Local Collection
    ProQuest Central
    DOAJ Directory of Open Access Journals
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