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Degrading permafrost puts Arctic infrastructure at risk by mid-century

Nature communications, 2018-12, Vol.9 (1), p.5147-9, Article 5147 [Peer Reviewed Journal]

2018. This work is published under http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (the “License”). Notwithstanding the ProQuest Terms and Conditions, you may use this content in accordance with the terms of the License. ;info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess ;The Author(s) 2018 ;ISSN: 2041-1723 ;EISSN: 2041-1723 ;DOI: 10.1038/s41467-018-07557-4 ;PMID: 30538247

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  • Title:
    Degrading permafrost puts Arctic infrastructure at risk by mid-century
  • Author: Hjort, Jan ; Karjalainen, Olli ; Aalto, Juha ; Westermann, Sebastian ; Romanovsky, Vladimir E ; Nelson, Frederick E ; Etzelmüller, Bernd ; Luoto, Miska
  • Subjects: Climate change ; Infrastructure ; Natural resources ; Northern Hemisphere ; Permafrost ; Polar environments ; Spatial resolution ; Stability ; Sustainable development ; Urban areas ; Urban environments
  • Is Part Of: Nature communications, 2018-12, Vol.9 (1), p.5147-9, Article 5147
  • Description: Degradation of near-surface permafrost can pose a serious threat to the utilization of natural resources, and to the sustainable development of Arctic communities. Here we identify at unprecedentedly high spatial resolution infrastructure hazard areas in the Northern Hemisphere's permafrost regions under projected climatic changes and quantify fundamental engineering structures at risk by 2050. We show that nearly four million people and 70% of current infrastructure in the permafrost domain are in areas with high potential for thaw of near-surface permafrost. Our results demonstrate that one-third of pan-Arctic infrastructure and 45% of the hydrocarbon extraction fields in the Russian Arctic are in regions where thaw-related ground instability can cause severe damage to the built environment. Alarmingly, these figures are not reduced substantially even if the climate change targets of the Paris Agreement are reached.
  • Publisher: England: Nature Publishing Group
  • Language: English;Norwegian
  • Identifier: ISSN: 2041-1723
    EISSN: 2041-1723
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-018-07557-4
    PMID: 30538247
  • Source: NORA Norwegian Open Research Archives
    PubMed Central
    ProQuest Central
    DOAJ Directory of Open Access Journals
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