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Seasonal Incidence of Symptomatic Influenza in the United States

Clinical infectious diseases, 2018-05, Vol.66 (10), p.1511-1518 [Peer Reviewed Journal]

ISSN: 1058-4838 ;EISSN: 1537-6591 ;DOI: 10.1093/cid/cix1060 ;PMID: 29206909

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  • Title:
    Seasonal Incidence of Symptomatic Influenza in the United States
  • Author: Tokars, Jerome I ; Olsen, Sonja J ; Reed, Carrie
  • Is Part Of: Clinical infectious diseases, 2018-05, Vol.66 (10), p.1511-1518
  • Description: The seasonal incidence of influenza is often approximated as 5%-20%. We used 2 methods to estimate the seasonal incidence of symptomatic influenza in the United States. First, we made a statistical estimate extrapolated from influenza-associated hospitalization rates for 2010-2011 to 2015-2016, collected as part of national surveillance, covering approximately 9% of the United States, and including the existing mix of vaccinated and unvaccinated persons. Second, we performed a literature search and meta-analysis of published manuscripts that followed cohorts of subjects during 1996-2016 to detect laboratory-confirmed symptomatic influenza among unvaccinated persons; we adjusted this result to the US median vaccination coverage and effectiveness during 2010-2016. The statistical estimate of influenza incidence among all ages ranged from 3.0%-11.3% among seasons, with median values of 8.3% (95% confidence interval [CI], 7.3%-9.7%) for all ages, 9.3% (95% CI, 8.2%-11.1%) for children <18 years, and 8.9% (95% CI, 8.2%-9.9%) for adults 18-64 years. Corresponding values for the meta-analysis were 7.1% (95% CI, 6.1%-8.1%) for all ages, 8.7% (95% CI, 6.6%-10.5%) for children, and 5.1% (95% CI, 3.6%-6.6%) for adults. The 2 approaches produced comparable results for children and persons of all ages. The statistical estimates are more versatile and permit estimation of season-to-season variation. During 2010-2016, the incidence of symptomatic influenza among vaccinated and unvaccinated US residents, including both medically attended and nonattended infections, was approximately 8% and varied from 3% to 11% among seasons.
  • Publisher: United States
  • Language: English
  • Identifier: ISSN: 1058-4838
    EISSN: 1537-6591
    DOI: 10.1093/cid/cix1060
    PMID: 29206909
  • Source: Alma/SFX Local Collection
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