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Association between Zika virus and microcephaly in French Polynesia, 2013–15: a retrospective study

The Lancet (British edition), 2016-05, Vol.387 (10033), p.2125-2132 [Peer Reviewed Journal]

Elsevier Ltd ;2016 Elsevier Ltd ;Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. ;Copyright Elsevier Limited May 21, 2016 ;2016. Elsevier Ltd ;ISSN: 0140-6736 ;EISSN: 1474-547X ;DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(16)00651-6 ;PMID: 26993883 ;CODEN: LANCAO

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Title:
Association between Zika virus and microcephaly in French Polynesia, 2013–15: a retrospective study
Author: Cauchemez, Simon, Dr ; Besnard, Marianne, MD ; Bompard, Priscillia, MPH ; Dub, Timothée, MPH ; Guillemette-Artur, Prisca, MD ; Eyrolle-Guignot, Dominique, MD ; Salje, Henrik, PhD ; Van Kerkhove, Maria D, PhD ; Abadie, Véronique, Prof ; Garel, Catherine, MD ; Fontanet, Arnaud, Prof ; Mallet, Henri-Pierre, MD
Subjects: Adult ; Age ; Babies ; Birth defects ; Births ; Brain ; Congenital diseases ; Data processing ; Datasets ; Epidemics ; Female ; Fetuses ; Guillain-Barre syndrome ; Health risks ; Humans ; Infant, Newborn ; Infections ; Infectious diseases ; Internal Medicine ; Male ; Medical records ; Microcephaly ; Microcephaly - epidemiology ; Microencephaly ; Mothers ; Neonates ; Neurological disorders ; Outbreaks ; Polynesia - epidemiology ; Pregnancy ; Public health ; Retrospective Studies ; Risk Assessment ; Risk Factors ; Surveillance ; Vector-borne diseases ; Viral infections ; Viruses ; West Nile virus ; Womens health ; Young Adult ; Zika Virus ; Zika Virus Infection - epidemiology
Is Part Of: The Lancet (British edition), 2016-05, Vol.387 (10033), p.2125-2132
Description: Summary Background The emergence of Zika virus in the Americas has coincided with increased reports of babies born with microcephaly. On Feb 1, 2016, WHO declared the suspected link between Zika virus and microcephaly to be a Public Health Emergency of International Concern. This association, however, has not been precisely quantified. Methods We retrospectively analysed data from a Zika virus outbreak in French Polynesia, which was the largest documented outbreak before that in the Americas. We used serological and surveillance data to estimate the probability of infection with Zika virus for each week of the epidemic and searched medical records to identify all cases of microcephaly from September, 2013, to July, 2015. Simple models were used to assess periods of risk in pregnancy when Zika virus might increase the risk of microcephaly and estimate the associated risk. Findings The Zika virus outbreak began in October, 2013, and ended in April, 2014, and 66% (95% CI 62–70) of the general population were infected. Of the eight microcephaly cases identified during the 23-month study period, seven (88%) occurred in the 4-month period March 1 to July 10, 2014. The timing of these cases was best explained by a period of risk in the first trimester of pregnancy. In this model, the baseline prevalence of microcephaly was two cases (95% CI 0–8) per 10 000 neonates, and the risk of microcephaly associated with Zika virus infection was 95 cases (34–191) per 10 000 women infected in the first trimester. We could not rule out an increased risk of microcephaly from infection in other trimesters, but models that excluded the first trimester were not supported by the data. Interpretation Our findings provide a quantitative estimate of the risk of microcephaly in fetuses and neonates whose mothers are infected with Zika virus. Funding Labex-IBEID, NIH-MIDAS, AXA Research fund, EU-PREDEMICS.
Publisher: England: Elsevier Ltd
Language: English
Identifier: ISSN: 0140-6736
EISSN: 1474-547X
DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(16)00651-6
PMID: 26993883
CODEN: LANCAO
Source: ProQuest One Psychology
MEDLINE
ProQuest Central

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Association between Zika virus and microcephaly in French Polynesia, 2013–15: a retrospective study

Elsevier Ltd ;2016 Elsevier Ltd ;Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. ;Copyright Elsevier Limited May 21, 2016 ;2016. Elsevier Ltd ;ISSN: 0140-6736 ;EISSN: 1474-547X ;DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(16)00651-6 ;PMID: 26993883 ;CODEN: LANCAO

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