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IMPLICATIONS OF THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC FOR STATE GOVERNMENT TAX REVENUES

National tax journal, 2020-09, Vol.73 (3), p.619-644 [Peer Reviewed Journal]

2020 National Tax Association. All rights reserved. ;COPYRIGHT 2020 National Tax Association ;Copyright National Tax Association Sep 2020 ;ISSN: 0028-0283 ;EISSN: 1944-7477 ;DOI: 10.17310/ntj.2020.3.01

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  • Title:
    IMPLICATIONS OF THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC FOR STATE GOVERNMENT TAX REVENUES
  • Author: Clemens, Jeffrey ; Veuger, Stan
  • Subjects: COVID-19 ; Economic aspects ; Economic impact ; Fees ; GDP ; Gross Domestic Product ; Income taxes ; Laws, regulations and rules ; Legislation ; Pandemics ; Political aspects ; Public health ; Sales ; Sales taxes ; State government ; State taxation ; Tax revenue estimating ; Tax revenues ; Taxation
  • Is Part Of: National tax journal, 2020-09, Vol.73 (3), p.619-644
  • Description: We assess the COVID-19 pandemic’s implications for state government sales and income tax revenues. We estimate that the economic declines implied by recent forecasts from the Congressional Budget Office will lead to a shortfall of roughly $106 billion in states’ sales and income tax revenues for the third quarter of 2020 through the second quarter of 2021 (the 2021 fiscal year for most states). This is equivalent to 0.5 percent of gross domestic product and 11.5 percent of our pre-COVID sales and income tax projection. Additional tax shortfalls from the second quarter of 2020 (the final quarter of most states’ 2020 fiscal years) may amount to roughly $42 billion. We discuss how these revenue declines fit into several pieces of the broader economic context. These include other revenues (e.g., university tuition and fees) that are also at risk, as well as spending needs necessitated by the public health crisis itself. Further dimensions of context involve fiscal support enacted through several pieces of federal legislation.
  • Publisher: Chicago: The University of Chicago Press
  • Language: English
  • Identifier: ISSN: 0028-0283
    EISSN: 1944-7477
    DOI: 10.17310/ntj.2020.3.01
  • Source: AUTh Library subscriptions: ProQuest Central
    Alma/SFX Local Collection
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