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Dynamics of the impact of COVID-19 on the economic activity of Peru

PloS one, 2021-01, Vol.16 (1), p.e0244920-e0244920 [Peer Reviewed Journal]

COPYRIGHT 2021 Public Library of Science ;COPYRIGHT 2021 Public Library of Science ;2021 Varona, Gonzales. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (the “License”), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. Notwithstanding the ProQuest Terms and Conditions, you may use this content in accordance with the terms of the License. ;2021 Varona, Gonzales 2021 Varona, Gonzales ;ISSN: 1932-6203 ;EISSN: 1932-6203 ;DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0244920 ;PMID: 33417613

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Title:
Dynamics of the impact of COVID-19 on the economic activity of Peru
Author: Varona, Luis ; Gonzales, Jorge R
Gherghina, Stefan Cristian
Subjects: Aggregates ; Consumption ; Containment ; Coronaviruses ; Cost control ; Cost of Illness ; Costs ; COVID-19 ; COVID-19 - economics ; Data analysis ; Developing countries ; Disease transmission ; Distribution ; Drafting software ; Econometrics ; Economic activity ; Economic aspects ; Economic conditions ; Economic Development ; Economic growth ; Economic Recession ; Economics ; Editing ; Employment ; Epidemic models ; Epidemics ; Epidemiology ; Funding ; Global economy ; Growth rate ; Health policy ; Humans ; Impact analysis ; LDCs ; Macroeconomics ; Mathematical models ; Medicine and Health Sciences ; Mitigation ; Models, Economic ; Monetary policy ; Pandemics ; People and places ; Peru ; Public health ; Recessions ; Regulation of financial institutions ; Social Sciences ; Socio-economic aspects ; Viruses ; Visualization ; World economy
Is Part Of: PloS one, 2021-01, Vol.16 (1), p.e0244920-e0244920
Description: The COVID-19 virus impacts human health and the world economy, causing in Peru, more than 800 thousand infected and a strong recession expressed in a drop of -12% in its economic growth rate for 2020. In this context, the objective of the study is to analyze the dynamics of the short-term behavior of economic activity, as well as to explain the causal relationships in a Pandemic context based on the basic number of spread (Re) of COVID-19 per day. An Autoregressive Distributed Lags (ARDL) model was used. A negative and statistically significant impact of the COVID-19 shock was found on the level of economic activity and a long-term Cointegration relationship with an error correction model (CEM), with the expected sign and statistically significant at 1%. The Pandemic has behaved as a systemic shock of supply and aggregate demand at the macroeconomic level, which together have an impact on the recession or level of economic activity. The authors propose changing public health policy from an indiscriminate suppression strategy to a targeted, effective and intelligent mitigation strategy that minimizes the risk of human life costs and socioeconomic costs, in a context of uncertainty about the end of the Pandemic and complemented by economic, fiscal and monetary policies that mitigate the economic recession, considering the underlying structural characteristics of the Peruvian economy.
Publisher: United States: Public Library of Science
Language: English
Identifier: ISSN: 1932-6203
EISSN: 1932-6203
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0244920
PMID: 33417613
Source: DOAJ : Directory of Open Access Journals
Public Library of Science (PLoS) Journals Open Access
PubMed Central (Open access)
Geneva Foundation Free Medical Journals at publisher websites
AUTh Library subscriptions: ProQuest Central
MEDLINE
Coronavirus Research Database

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Dynamics of the impact of COVID-19 on the economic activity of Peru

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