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Deforestation and world population sustainability: a quantitative analysis

Scientific reports, 2020-05, Vol.10 (1), p.7631-7631, Article 7631 [Peer Reviewed Journal]

The Author(s) 2020. This work is published under http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (the “License”). Notwithstanding the ProQuest Terms and Conditions, you may use this content in accordance with the terms of the License. ;The Author(s) 2020 ;ISSN: 2045-2322 ;EISSN: 2045-2322 ;DOI: 10.1038/s41598-020-63657-6 ;PMID: 32376879

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  • Title:
    Deforestation and world population sustainability: a quantitative analysis
  • Author: Bologna, Mauro ; Aquino, Gerardo
  • Subjects: Deforestation ; Population growth ; Quantitative analysis ; Stochasticity
  • Is Part Of: Scientific reports, 2020-05, Vol.10 (1), p.7631-7631, Article 7631
  • Description: In this paper we afford a quantitative analysis of the sustainability of current world population growth in relation to the parallel deforestation process adopting a statistical point of view. We consider a simplified model based on a stochastic growth process driven by a continuous time random walk, which depicts the technological evolution of human kind, in conjunction with a deterministic generalised logistic model for humans-forest interaction and we evaluate the probability of avoiding the self-destruction of our civilisation. Based on the current resource consumption rates and best estimate of technological rate growth our study shows that we have very low probability, less than 10% in most optimistic estimate, to survive without facing a catastrophic collapse.
  • Publisher: England: Nature Publishing Group
  • Language: English
  • Identifier: ISSN: 2045-2322
    EISSN: 2045-2322
    DOI: 10.1038/s41598-020-63657-6
    PMID: 32376879
  • Source: PubMed Central
    ProQuest Central
    DOAJ Directory of Open Access Journals
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