skip to main content
Language:
Search Limited to: Search Limited to: Resource type Show Results with: Show Results with: Search type Index

model comparison approach shows stronger support for economic models of fertility decline

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences - PNAS, 2013-05, Vol.110 (20), p.8045-8050 [Peer Reviewed Journal]

copyright © 1993-2008 National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America ;Copyright National Academy of Sciences May 14, 2013 ;ISSN: 0027-8424 ;EISSN: 1091-6490 ;DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1217029110 ;PMID: 23630293

Full text available

Citations Cited by
  • Title:
    model comparison approach shows stronger support for economic models of fertility decline
  • Author: Shenk, Mary K. ; Towner, Mary C. ; Kress, Howard C. ; Alam, Nurul
  • Subjects: Bangladesh ; Biological Sciences ; Birth Rate ; Children ; Cultural Characteristics ; Demographic transitions ; Demographics ; Demography ; Developed Countries ; Economic models ; Female ; Female fertility ; Fertility ; Fertility rates ; Human fertility ; Humans ; Life Expectancy ; Male ; Modeling ; Models, Economic ; Mortality ; Population ; Population Dynamics ; Social Sciences ; Socioeconomic Factors
  • Is Part Of: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences - PNAS, 2013-05, Vol.110 (20), p.8045-8050
  • Description: The demographic transition is an ongoing global phenomenon in which high fertility and mortality rates are replaced by low fertility and mortality. Despite intense interest in the causes of the transition, especially with respect to decreasing fertility rates, the underlying mechanisms motivating it are still subject to much debate. The literature is crowded with competing theories, including causal models that emphasize (i) mortality and extrinsic risk, (ii) the economic costs and benefits of investing in self and children, and (iii) the cultural transmission of low-fertility social norms. Distinguishing between models, however, requires more comprehensive, better-controlled studies than have been published to date. We use detailed demographic data from recent fieldwork to determine which models produce the most robust explanation of the rapid, recent demographic transition in rural Bangladesh. To rigorously compare models, we use an evidence-based statistical approach using model selection techniques derived from likelihood theory. This approach allows us to quantify the relative evidence the data give to alternative models, even when model predictions are not mutually exclusive. Results indicate that fertility, measured as either total fertility or surviving children, is best explained by models emphasizing economic factors and related motivations for parental investment. Our results also suggest important synergies between models, implicating multiple causal pathways in the rapidity and degree of recent demographic transitions.
  • Publisher: United States: National Academy of Sciences
  • Language: English
  • Identifier: ISSN: 0027-8424
    EISSN: 1091-6490
    DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1217029110
    PMID: 23630293
  • Source: GFMER Free Medical Journals
    MEDLINE
    PubMed Central

Searching Remote Databases, Please Wait