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What Do Measures of Real-time Corporate Sales Tell Us about Earnings Surprises and Post-Announcement Returns?
NBER Working Paper Series, 2016-06, p.22366
Copyright National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. Jun 2016 ;ISSN: 0898-2937 ;DOI: 10.3386/w22366
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Title:
What Do Measures of Real-time Corporate Sales Tell Us about Earnings Surprises and Post-Announcement Returns?
Author:
Froot, Kenneth A
;
Kang, Namho
;
Ozik, Gideon
;
Sadka, Ronnie
Subjects:
Corporate Finance
;
Disclosure
;
Hypotheses
;
Retail stores
;
Stockholders
Is Part Of:
NBER Working Paper Series, 2016-06, p.22366
Description:
We develop real-time proxies of retail corporate sales from multiple sources, including ~50 million mobile devices. These measures contain information from both the earnings quarter (“within quarter”) and the period between that quarter’s end and the earnings announcement date (“post quarter”). Our within-quarter measure is powerful in explaining quarterly sales growth, revenue surprises, and earnings surprises, generating average excess returns at announcement of 3.4%. However, surprisingly, our post-quarter measure is related negatively to announcement returns, and positively to post-announcement returns. When post-quarter private information is directionally strong, managers, at announcement, provide guidance and use language that points statistically in the opposite direction. This effect is more pronounced when, post-announcement, management insiders trade. We conclude managers do not fully disclose their private information and instead message to shareholders and analysts something of opposite sign. The data suggest they may be motivated in part by subsequent personal stock-trading opportunities.
Publisher:
Cambridge: National Bureau of Economic Research
Language:
English
Identifier:
ISSN: 0898-2937
DOI: 10.3386/w22366
Source:
Alma/SFX Local Collection
ProQuest Central
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