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Estimating the global economic benefits of physically active populations over 30 years (2020–2050)

British journal of sports medicine, 2020-12, Vol.54 (24), p.1482-1487 [Peer Reviewed Journal]

Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2020. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ. ;2020 Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2020. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ. This is an open access article distributed in accordance with the Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial (CC BY-NC 4.0) license, which permits others to distribute, remix, adapt, build upon this work non-commercially, and license their derivative works on different terms, provided the original work is properly cited, appropriate credit is given, any changes made indicated, and the use is non-commercial. See: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/ . Notwithstanding the ProQuest Terms and Conditions, you may use this content in accordance with the terms of the License. ;Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2020. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ. 2020 ;ISSN: 0306-3674 ;EISSN: 1473-0480 ;DOI: 10.1136/bjsports-2020-102590 ;PMID: 33239354

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  • Title:
    Estimating the global economic benefits of physically active populations over 30 years (2020–2050)
  • Author: Hafner, Marco ; Yerushalmi, Erez ; Stepanek, Martin ; Phillips, William ; Pollard, Jack ; Deshpande, Advait ; Whitmore, Michael ; Millard, Francois ; Subel, Shaun ; van Stolk, Christian
  • Subjects: Cost control ; COVID-19 ; Estimates ; Exercise ; Global Health - economics ; Gross Domestic Product - statistics & numerical data ; Health Promotion - economics ; Humans ; Labor supply ; Macroeconomics ; Metabolism ; Mortality ; Mortality - trends ; Original Research ; Population ; Productivity ; Public health ; Sedentary Behavior
  • Is Part Of: British journal of sports medicine, 2020-12, Vol.54 (24), p.1482-1487
  • Description: ObjectivesWe assess the potential benefits of increased physical activity for the global economy for 23 countries and the rest of the world from 2020 to 2050. The main factors taken into account in the economic assessment are excess mortality and lower productivity.MethodsThis study links three methodologies. First, we estimate the association between physical inactivity and workplace productivity using multivariable regression models with proprietary data on 120 143 individuals in the UK and six Asian countries (Australia, Malaysia, Hong Kong, Thailand, Singapore and Sri Lanka). Second, we analyse the association between physical activity and mortality risk through a meta-regression analysis with data from 74 prior studies with global coverage. Finally, the estimated effects are combined in a computable general equilibrium macroeconomic model to project the economic benefits of physical activity over time.ResultsDoing at least 150 min of moderate-intensity physical activity per week, as per lower limit of the range recommended by the 2020 WHO guidelines, would lead to an increase in global gross domestic product (GDP) of 0.15%–0.24% per year by 2050, worth up to US$314–446 billion per year and US$6.0–8.6 trillion cumulatively over the 30-year projection horizon (in 2019 prices). The results vary by country due to differences in baseline levels of physical activity and GDP per capita.ConclusionsIncreasing physical activity in the population would lead to reduction in working-age mortality and morbidity and an increase in productivity, particularly through lower presenteeism, leading to substantial economic gains for the global economy.
  • Publisher: England: BMJ Publishing Group LTD
  • Language: English
  • Identifier: ISSN: 0306-3674
    EISSN: 1473-0480
    DOI: 10.1136/bjsports-2020-102590
    PMID: 33239354
  • Source: BMJ Open Access Journals
    MEDLINE
    ProQuest Central
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