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Reducing Planetary Health Risks Through Short‐Lived Climate Forcer Mitigation

Geohealth, 2021-07, Vol.5 (7), p.e2021GH000422-n/a [Peer Reviewed Journal]

2021. The Authors. GeoHealth published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Geophysical Union. ;2021. This work is published under http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/ (the “License”). Notwithstanding the ProQuest Terms and Conditions, you may use this content in accordance with the terms of the License. ;ISSN: 2471-1403 ;EISSN: 2471-1403 ;DOI: 10.1029/2021GH000422 ;PMID: 34308088

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Title:
Reducing Planetary Health Risks Through Short‐Lived Climate Forcer Mitigation
Author: Zheng, Yiqi ; Unger, Nadine
Subjects: Abrupt/Rapid Climate Change ; Aerosols ; Agriculture ; Air pollution ; Air pollution control ; air quality ; Air temperature ; Air/Sea Constituent Fluxes ; Air/Sea Interactions ; Anthropogenic factors ; Atmospheric ; Atmospheric chemistry ; Atmospheric Composition and Structure ; Atmospheric Effects ; Atmospheric Processes ; Avalanches ; Benefit‐cost Analysis ; Biogeosciences ; Carbon dioxide ; Climate and Interannual Variability ; Climate change ; Climate Change and Variability ; Climate Dynamics ; Climate Impact ; Climate Impacts ; Climate Variability ; Climatology ; Computational Geophysics ; Cryosphere ; Decadal Ocean Variability ; Disaster Risk Analysis and Assessment ; Earth System Modeling ; Earthquake Ground Motions and Engineering Seismology ; Ecosystems ; Effusive Volcanism ; Emissions ; Explosive Volcanism ; General Circulation ; Geodesy and Gravity ; Geohealth ; Geological ; Global Change ; Global Change from Geodesy ; Global warming ; Gravity and Isostasy ; Health risk assessment ; Health risks ; human health ; Hydrological Cycles and Budgets ; Hydrology ; Impacts of Climate Change: Human Health ; Impacts of Global Change ; Informatics ; Land/Atmosphere Interactions ; Landfills ; Marine Geology and Geophysics ; Mass Balance ; Methane ; Mitigation ; Modeling ; Mud Volcanism ; Natural Hazards ; Numerical Modeling ; Numerical Solutions ; Ocean influence of Earth rotation ; Ocean Monitoring with Geodetic Techniques ; Ocean/Atmosphere Interactions ; Ocean/Earth/atmosphere/hydrosphere/cryosphere interactions ; Oceanic ; Oceanography: General ; Oceanography: Physical ; Oceans ; Paleoceanography ; Particulate matter ; Physical Modeling ; PM2.5 ; Policy Sciences ; Pollutants ; premature deaths ; Public Health ; radiative forcing ; Radio Oceanography ; Radio Science ; Regional Climate Change ; Regional Modeling ; Risk ; Risk assessment ; Sea Level Change ; Sea Level: Variations and Mean ; Seismology ; Simulation ; Solid Earth ; Surface Waves and Tides ; Temperature ; Theoretical Modeling ; Thermosphere: Composition and Chemistry ; Tsunamis and Storm Surges ; Volcanic Effects ; Volcanic Hazards and Risks ; Volcano Monitoring ; Volcano Seismology ; Volcano/Climate Interactions ; Volcanology ; Waste disposal sites ; Water Cycles
Is Part Of: Geohealth, 2021-07, Vol.5 (7), p.e2021GH000422-n/a
Description: Global air pollution and climate change are major threats to planetary health. These threats are strongly linked through the short‐lived climate forcers (SLCFs); ozone (O3), aerosols, and methane (CH4). Understanding the impacts of ambitious SLCF mitigation in different source emission sectors on planetary health indicators can help prioritize international air pollution control strategies. A global Earth system model is applied to quantify the impacts of idealized 50% sustained reductions in year 2005 emissions in the eight largest global anthropogenic source sectors on the SLCFs and three indicators of planetary health: global mean surface air temperature change (∆GSAT), avoided PM2.5‐related premature mortalities and gross primary productivity (GPP). The model represents fully coupled atmospheric chemistry, aerosols, land ecosystems and climate, and includes dynamic CH4. Avoided global warming is modest, with largest impacts from 50% cuts in domestic (−0.085 K), agriculture (−0.034 K), and waste/landfill (−0.033 K). The 50% cuts in energy, domestic, and agriculture sector emissions offer the largest opportunities to mitigate global PM2.5‐related health risk at around 5%–7% each. Such small global impacts underline the challenges ahead in achieving the World Health Organization aspirational goal of a 2/3 reduction in the number of deaths from air pollution by 2030. Uncertainty due to natural climate variability in PM2.5 is an important underplayed dimension in global health risk assessment that can vastly exceed uncertainty due to the concentration‐response functions at the large regional scale. Globally, cuts to agriculture and domestic sector emissions are the most attractive targets to achieve climate and health co‐benefits through SLCF mitigation. Plain Language Summary Climate mitigation action must be taken immediately on a global scale if we are to stay within the Paris Agreement temperature limit of well below 2°C. In addition to damaging human and global forest health, air pollutants influence global climate change, some cause global warming, and others cause global cooling. Reducing global air pollution can advance multiple United Nations Sustainable Development Goals but the actual environmental impacts of targeted mitigation options are not well understood. When there are many mitigation options to choose from, with limited resources, decisions must be made to prioritise one action over another and ensure win‐win solutions for both climate and heath. This study uses an Earth system model to calculate the impacts of deep cuts in air pollutant emissions from different economic sources sectors on global temperature, human health and land ecosystem health. Key Points Quantify impacts of deep short‐lived climate forcer (SLCF) emission mitigation by source sector on global temperature and human and ecosystem health Uncertainties due to year‐to‐year meteorological variability in PM2.5 is an important dimension in global human health risk assessment Achieving planetary health benefits from SLCF mitigation requires ambitious mitigation pathways that tackle multiple source sectors
Publisher: United States: John Wiley & Sons, Inc
Language: English
Identifier: ISSN: 2471-1403
EISSN: 2471-1403
DOI: 10.1029/2021GH000422
PMID: 34308088
Source: Open Access: DOAJ Directory of Open Access Journals
Open Access: PubMed Central
Open Access: Wiley Blackwell Open Access Journals
AUTh Library subscriptions: ProQuest Central

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Reducing Planetary Health Risks Through Short‐Lived Climate Forcer Mitigation

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