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Observed heavy precipitation increase confirms theory and early models

Nature climate change, 2016-11, Vol.6 (11), p.986-991 [Peer Reviewed Journal]

Copyright Nature Publishing Group Nov 2016 ;ISSN: 1758-678X ;EISSN: 1758-6798 ;DOI: 10.1038/nclimate3110

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  • Title:
    Observed heavy precipitation increase confirms theory and early models
  • Author: Fischer, E M ; Knutti, R
  • Is Part Of: Nature climate change, 2016-11, Vol.6 (11), p.986-991
  • Description: Environmental phenomena are often observed first, and then explained quantitatively. The complexity of processes, the range of scales involved, and the lack of first principles make it challenging to predict conditions beyond the ones observed. Here we use the intensification of heavy precipitation as a counterexample, where seemingly complex and potentially computationally intractable processes manifest themselves to first order in simple ways: heavy precipitation intensification is now emerging in the observed record across many regions of the world, confirming both theory and model predictions made decades ago. As the anthropogenic climate signal strengthens, there will be more opportunities to test climate predictions for other variables against observations and across a hierarchy of different models and theoretical concepts.
  • Publisher: London: Nature Publishing Group
  • Language: English
  • Identifier: ISSN: 1758-678X
    EISSN: 1758-6798
    DOI: 10.1038/nclimate3110
  • Source: ProQuest Central
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