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Observed heavy precipitation increase confirms theory and early models
Nature climate change, 2016-11, Vol.6 (11), p.986-991
[Peer Reviewed Journal]
Copyright Nature Publishing Group Nov 2016 ;ISSN: 1758-678X ;EISSN: 1758-6798 ;DOI: 10.1038/nclimate3110
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Title:
Observed heavy precipitation increase confirms theory and early models
Author:
Fischer, E M
;
Knutti, R
Is Part Of:
Nature climate change, 2016-11, Vol.6 (11), p.986-991
Description:
Environmental phenomena are often observed first, and then explained quantitatively. The complexity of processes, the range of scales involved, and the lack of first principles make it challenging to predict conditions beyond the ones observed. Here we use the intensification of heavy precipitation as a counterexample, where seemingly complex and potentially computationally intractable processes manifest themselves to first order in simple ways: heavy precipitation intensification is now emerging in the observed record across many regions of the world, confirming both theory and model predictions made decades ago. As the anthropogenic climate signal strengthens, there will be more opportunities to test climate predictions for other variables against observations and across a hierarchy of different models and theoretical concepts.
Publisher:
London: Nature Publishing Group
Language:
English
Identifier:
ISSN: 1758-678X
EISSN: 1758-6798
DOI: 10.1038/nclimate3110
Source:
AUTh Library subscriptions: ProQuest Central
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