skip to main content
Language:
Search Limited to: Search Limited to: Resource type Show Results with: Show Results with: Search type Index

Developing Prediction Models for COVID-19 Outcomes: A Valuable Tool for Resource-Limited Hospitals

International journal of general medicine, 2023-07, Vol.16, p.3053-3065 [Peer Reviewed Journal]

2023 Popescu et al. ;COPYRIGHT 2023 Dove Medical Press Limited ;2023 Popescu et al. 2023 Popescu et al. ;ISSN: 1178-7074 ;EISSN: 1178-7074 ;DOI: 10.2147/IJGM.S419206 ;PMID: 37489130

Full text available

Citations Cited by
  • Title:
    Developing Prediction Models for COVID-19 Outcomes: A Valuable Tool for Resource-Limited Hospitals
  • Author: Popescu, Irina-Maria ; Margan, Madalin-Marius ; Anghel, Mariana ; Mocanu, Alexandra ; Laitin, Sorina Maria Denisa ; Margan, Roxana ; Capraru, Ionut Dragos ; Tene, Alexandra-Andreea ; Gal-Nadasan, Emanuela-Georgiana ; Cirnatu, Daniela ; Chicin, Gratiana Nicoleta ; Oancea, Cristian ; Anghel, Andrei
  • Subjects: anc ; C-reactive protein ; Coronaviruses ; crp ; Epidemics ; Kidney diseases ; Medical research ; Medicine, Experimental ; Nervous system diseases ; Original Research ; Risk factors ; risk profiling ; Romania ; Taiwan ; unfavourable outcome
  • Is Part Of: International journal of general medicine, 2023-07, Vol.16, p.3053-3065
  • Description: Coronavirus disease is a global pandemic with millions of confirmed cases and hundreds of thousands of deaths worldwide that continues to create a significant burden on the healthcare systems. The aim of this study was to determine the patient clinical and paraclinical profiles that associate with COVID-19 unfavourable outcome and generate a prediction model that could separate between high-risk and low-risk groups. The present study is a multivariate observational retrospective study. A total of 483 patients, residents of the municipality of TimiÈ™oara, the biggest city in the Western Region of Romania, were included in the study group that was further divided into 3 sub-groups in accordance with the disease severity form. Increased age (cOR=1.09, 95% CI: 1.06-1.11, p<0.001), cardiovascular diseases (cOR=3.37, 95% CI: 1.96-6.08, p<0.001), renal disease (cOR=4.26, 95% CI: 2.13-8.52, p<0.001), and neurological disorder (cOR=5.46, 95% CI: 2.71-11.01, p<0.001) were all independently significantly correlated with an unfavourable outcome in the study group. The severe form increases the risk of an unfavourable outcome 19.59 times (95% CI: 11.57-34.10, p<0.001), while older age remains an independent risk factor even when disease severity is included in the statistical model. An unfavourable outcome was positively associated with increased values for the following paraclinical parameters: white blood count (WBC; cOR=1.10, 95% CI: 1.05-1.15, p<0.001), absolute neutrophil count (ANC; cOR=1.15, 95% CI: 1.09-1.21, p<0.001) and C-reactive protein (CRP; cOR=1.007, 95% CI: 1.004-1.009, p<0.001). The best prediction model including age, ANC and CRP achieved a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve with the area under the curve (AUC) = 0.845 (95% CI: 0.813-0.877, p<0.001); cut-off value = 0.12; sensitivity = 72.3%; specificity = 83.9%. This model and risk profiling may contribute to a more precise allocation of limited healthcare resources in a clinical setup and can guide the development of strategies for disease management.
  • Publisher: New Zealand: Dove Medical Press Limited
  • Language: English
  • Identifier: ISSN: 1178-7074
    EISSN: 1178-7074
    DOI: 10.2147/IJGM.S419206
    PMID: 37489130
  • Source: PubMed (Medline)
    GFMER Free Medical Journals
    DOVE Medical Press Journals
    ROAD: Directory of Open Access Scholarly Resources
    ProQuest Central
    DOAJ Directory of Open Access Journals
Back to results list
INSPIRE LIBRARY - TON DUC THANG UNIVERSITY (84-028) 37 755 057 Feedback
19 Nguyen Huu Tho St. Dist.7, HCM thuvien@tdtu.edu.vn

Copyright © 2017 INSPIRE LIBRARY - TON DUC THANG UNIVERSITY

Searching Remote Databases, Please Wait