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Strongly increasing heat extremes in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) in the 21st century

Climatic change, 2016-07, Vol.137 (1-2), p.245-260 [Peer Reviewed Journal]

The Author(s) 2016 ;Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2016 ;ISSN: 0165-0009 ;EISSN: 1573-1480 ;DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1665-6 ;CODEN: CLCHDX

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Title:
Strongly increasing heat extremes in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) in the 21st century
Author: Lelieveld, J. ; Proestos, Y. ; Hadjinicolaou, P. ; Tanarhte, M. ; Tyrlis, E. ; Zittis, G.
Subjects: 21st century ; Atmospheric models ; Atmospheric Sciences ; Climate ; Climate change ; Climate Change/Climate Change Impacts ; Climate models ; Earth and Environmental Science ; Earth Sciences ; Emissions ; Extreme values ; Global warming ; Health ; Heat ; Mortality ; Precipitation ; Projection ; Rain ; Summer ; Temperature ; Trends ; Uncertainty ; Weather
Is Part Of: Climatic change, 2016-07, Vol.137 (1-2), p.245-260
Description: The ensemble results of CMIP5 climate models that applied the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios have been used to investigate climate change and temperature extremes in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Uncertainty evaluation of climate projections indicates good model agreement for temperature but much less for precipitation. Results imply that climate warming in the MENA is strongest in summer while elsewhere it is typically stronger in winter. The summertime warming extends the thermal low at the surface from South Asia across the Middle East over North Africa, as the hot desert climate intensifies and becomes more extreme. Observations and model calculations of the recent past consistently show increasing heat extremes, which are projected to accelerate in future. The number of warm days and nights may increase sharply. On average in the MENA, the maximum temperature during the hottest days in the recent past was about 43 °C, which could increase to about 46 °C by the middle of the century and reach almost 50 °C by the end of the century, the latter according to the RCP8.5 (business-as-usual) scenario. This will have important consequences for human health and society.
Publisher: Dordrecht: Springer Netherlands
Language: English
Identifier: ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1665-6
CODEN: CLCHDX
Source: Springer Nature OA/Free Journals
ProQuest Central

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Strongly increasing heat extremes in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) in the 21st century

The Author(s) 2016 ;Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2016 ;ISSN: 0165-0009 ;EISSN: 1573-1480 ;DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1665-6 ;CODEN: CLCHDX

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