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What Is the Predictability Limit of Midlatitude Weather?

Journal of the atmospheric sciences, 2019-04, Vol.76 (4), p.1077-1091 [Peer Reviewed Journal]

Copyright American Meteorological Society Apr 2019 ;ISSN: 0022-4928 ;EISSN: 1520-0469 ;DOI: 10.1175/JAS-D-18-0269.1

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  • Title:
    What Is the Predictability Limit of Midlatitude Weather?
  • Author: Zhang, Fuqing ; Sun, Y. Qiang ; Magnusson, Linus ; Buizza, Roberto ; Lin, Shian-Jiann ; Chen, Jan-Huey ; Emanuel, Kerry
  • Subjects: Accuracy ; Boundary conditions ; Climate models ; Data assimilation ; Data collection ; Initial conditions ; Lead time ; Numerical prediction ; Predictability ; Predictions ; Rainstorms ; Simulation ; Socio-economic aspects ; Storm forecasting ; Storms ; Summer monsoon ; Thunderstorms ; Turbulence models ; Weather ; Weather forecasting ; Winter storms
  • Is Part Of: Journal of the atmospheric sciences, 2019-04, Vol.76 (4), p.1077-1091
  • Description: Abstract Understanding the predictability limit of day-to-day weather phenomena such as midlatitude winter storms and summer monsoonal rainstorms is crucial to numerical weather prediction (NWP). This predictability limit is studied using unprecedented high-resolution global models with ensemble experiments of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF; 9-km operational model) and identical-twin experiments of the U.S. Next-Generation Global Prediction System (NGGPS; 3 km). Results suggest that the predictability limit for midlatitude weather may indeed exist and is intrinsic to the underlying dynamical system and instabilities even if the forecast model and the initial conditions are nearly perfect. Currently, a skillful forecast lead time of midlatitude instantaneous weather is around 10 days, which serves as the practical predictability limit. Reducing the current-day initial-condition uncertainty by an order of magnitude extends the deterministic forecast lead times of day-to-day weather by up to 5 days, with much less scope for improving prediction of small-scale phenomena like thunderstorms. Achieving this additional predictability limit can have enormous socioeconomic benefits but requires coordinated efforts by the entire community to design better numerical weather models, to improve observations, and to make better use of observations with advanced data assimilation and computing techniques.
  • Publisher: Boston: American Meteorological Society
  • Language: English
  • Identifier: ISSN: 0022-4928
    EISSN: 1520-0469
    DOI: 10.1175/JAS-D-18-0269.1
  • Source: Alma/SFX Local Collection
    ProQuest Central
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