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Future changes in precipitation over Central Asia based on CMIP6 projections

Environmental research letters, 2020-05, Vol.15 (5), p.54009 [Peer Reviewed Journal]

2020 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd ;Copyright IOP Publishing May 2020 ;ISSN: 1748-9326 ;EISSN: 1748-9326 ;DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ab7d03 ;CODEN: ERLNAL

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  • Title:
    Future changes in precipitation over Central Asia based on CMIP6 projections
  • Author: Jiang, Jie ; Zhou, Tianjun ; Chen, Xiaolong ; Zhang, Lixia
  • Subjects: Annual precipitation ; Central Asia ; Drying ; Evaporation ; moisture budget ; Mountains ; Pathways ; Precipitation ; projection ; Socio-economic aspects ; Spring (season) ; Summer ; Trends ; Wetting
  • Is Part Of: Environmental research letters, 2020-05, Vol.15 (5), p.54009
  • Description: A stronger than global mean warming trend is projected over Central Asia in the coming century. Based on the historical simulations and projections under four combined scenarios of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and the Representative Concentration Pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5) provided by 15 models from the Sixth Phase of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), we show a comprehensive picture of the future changes in precipitation over Central Asia under rapid warming and investigate possible mechanisms. At the end of the twenty-first century, robust increase of annual mean precipitation under all the scenarios is found (4.23 [2.60 to 7.36] %, 10.52 [5.05 to 13.36] %, 14.51 [8.11 to 16.91] %, 14.41 [9.58 to 21.26] % relative to the present-day for SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5, respectively). The response of precipitation to increasing global mean temperature shows similar spatial patterns for the four scenarios with stronger changes over Tianshan mountain and the northern part of Central Asia. Further analysis reveals a wetting trend in spring and a drying trend in summer in both the north of Central Asia (NCA) and south of Central Asia (SCA). The wetting trend in spring is balanced by the increase of evaporation, while the drying trend in summer is mainly contributed by the decrease of vertical moisture advection. The thermodynamic effects associated with humidity changes contribute to the drying trends in both the two domains, while the dynamic effects favor for the drying trend in NCA and offset the drying trend in SCA. The response of precipitation to increasing temperature results in enhanced seasonalities for SCA and NCA, and an advancing of the first peak from summer to spring in the NCA.
  • Publisher: Bristol: IOP Publishing
  • Language: English
  • Identifier: ISSN: 1748-9326
    EISSN: 1748-9326
    DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ab7d03
    CODEN: ERLNAL
  • Source: Open Access: IOP Publishing Free Content
    Geneva Foundation Free Medical Journals at publisher websites
    IOPscience (Open Access)
    Directory of Open Access Journals
    ROAD: Directory of Open Access Scholarly Resources
    ProQuest Central
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