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Understanding predictive information criteria for Bayesian models
Statistics and computing, 2014-11, Vol.24 (6), p.997-1016
[Peer Reviewed Journal]
Springer Science+Business Media New York 2013 ;ISSN: 0960-3174 ;EISSN: 1573-1375 ;DOI: 10.1007/s11222-013-9416-2
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Title:
Understanding predictive information criteria for Bayesian models
Author:
Gelman, Andrew
;
Hwang, Jessica
;
Vehtari, Aki
Subjects:
Artificial Intelligence
;
Mathematics and Statistics
;
Probability and Statistics in Computer Science
;
Statistical Theory and Methods
;
Statistics
;
Statistics and Computing/Statistics Programs
Is Part Of:
Statistics and computing, 2014-11, Vol.24 (6), p.997-1016
Description:
We review the Akaike, deviance, and Watanabe-Akaike information criteria from a Bayesian perspective, where the goal is to estimate expected out-of-sample-prediction error using a bias-corrected adjustment of within-sample error. We focus on the choices involved in setting up these measures, and we compare them in three simple examples, one theoretical and two applied. The contribution of this paper is to put all these information criteria into a Bayesian predictive context and to better understand, through small examples, how these methods can apply in practice.
Publisher:
Boston: Springer US
Language:
English
Identifier:
ISSN: 0960-3174
EISSN: 1573-1375
DOI: 10.1007/s11222-013-9416-2
Source:
Alma/SFX Local Collection
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