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Robust negative impacts of climate change on African agriculture

Environmental research letters, 2010-01, Vol.5 (1), p.014010-014010 [Peer Reviewed Journal]

Copyright IOP Publishing Jan 2010 ;ISSN: 1748-9326 ;EISSN: 1748-9326 ;DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/5/1/014010

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  • Title:
    Robust negative impacts of climate change on African agriculture
  • Author: Schlenker, Wolfram ; Lobell, David B
  • Subjects: Agricultural production ; Agriculture ; Arachis hypogaea ; Cassava ; Climate change ; Crop production ; Crop yield ; Environmental impact ; Groundnuts ; Investments ; Manihot esculenta ; Meteorological data ; Robustness ; Sorghum ; Zea mays
  • Is Part Of: Environmental research letters, 2010-01, Vol.5 (1), p.014010-014010
  • Description: There is widespread interest in the impacts of climate change on agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), and on the most effective investments to assist adaptation to these changes, yet the scientific basis for estimating production risks and prioritizing investments has been quite limited. Here we show that by combining historical crop production and weather data into a panel analysis, a robust model of yield response to climate change emerges for several key African crops. By mid-century, the mean estimates of aggregate production changes in SSA under our preferred model specification are − 22, − 17, − 17, − 18, and − 8% for maize, sorghum, millet, groundnut, and cassava, respectively. In all cases except cassava, there is a 95% probability that damages exceed 7%, and a 5% probability that they exceed 27%. Moreover, countries with the highest average yields have the largest projected yield losses, suggesting that well-fertilized modern seed varieties are more susceptible to heat related losses.
  • Publisher: Bristol: IOP Publishing
  • Language: English
  • Identifier: ISSN: 1748-9326
    EISSN: 1748-9326
    DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/5/1/014010
  • Source: IOP Publishing (Open access)
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