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Copula-based common cause failure models with Bayesian inferences

Nuclear Engineering and Technology, 2021, 53(2), , pp.357-367 [Peer Reviewed Journal]

2020 Korean Nuclear Society ;ISSN: 1738-5733 ;EISSN: 2234-358X ;DOI: 10.1016/j.net.2020.08.014

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  • Title:
    Copula-based common cause failure models with Bayesian inferences
  • Author: Jin, Kyungho ; Son, Kibeom ; Heo, Gyunyoung
  • Subjects: Asymmetric conditions ; Bayesian inferences ; Common cause failures ; Copula ; 원자력공학
  • Is Part Of: Nuclear Engineering and Technology, 2021, 53(2), , pp.357-367
  • Description: In general, common cause failures (CCFs) have been modeled with the assumption that components within the same group are symmetric. This assumption reduces the number of parameters required for the CCF probability estimation and allows us to use a parametric model, such as the alpha factor model. Although there are various asymmetric conditions in nuclear power plants (NPPs) to be addressed, the traditional CCF models are limited to symmetric conditions. Therefore, this paper proposes the copula-based CCF model to deal with asymmetric as well as symmetric CCFs. Once a joint distribution between the components is constructed using copulas, the proposed model is able to provide the probability of common cause basic events (CCBEs) by formulating a system of equations without symmetry assumptions. In addition, Bayesian inferences for the parameters of the marginal and copula distributions are introduced and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are employed to sample from the posterior distribution. Three example cases using simulated data, including asymmetry conditions in total failure probabilities and/or dependencies, are illustrated. Consequently, the copula-based CCF model provides appropriate estimates of CCFs for asymmetric conditions. This paper also discusses the limitations and notes on the proposed method.
  • Publisher: Elsevier B.V
  • Language: English;Korean
  • Identifier: ISSN: 1738-5733
    EISSN: 2234-358X
    DOI: 10.1016/j.net.2020.08.014
  • Source: Alma/SFX Local Collection
    DOAJ Directory of Open Access Journals
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