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Predicting the Distributions of IMorus notabilis/I C. K. Schneid under Climate Change in China

Forests, 2024-02, Vol.15 (2) [Peer Reviewed Journal]

COPYRIGHT 2024 MDPI AG ;ISSN: 1999-4907 ;EISSN: 1999-4907 ;DOI: 10.3390/f15020352

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  • Title:
    Predicting the Distributions of IMorus notabilis/I C. K. Schneid under Climate Change in China
  • Author: Gao, Hui ; Qian, Qianqian ; Deng, Xinqi ; Peng, Yaqin ; Xu, Danping
  • Subjects: China ; Global temperature changes ; Natural resources ; Taiwan
  • Is Part Of: Forests, 2024-02, Vol.15 (2)
  • Description: As one of the common mulberry tree species, Morus notabilis C. K. Schneid plays a significant role in various industries such as silkworm rearing, papermaking, and medicine due to its valuable mulberry leaves, fruits, and wood. This study utilizes the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model to predict the potential distribution of M. notabilis in China under future environmental changes. By integrating the relative percentage contribution score of environmental factors with jackknife test analysis, important variables influencing the distribution of M. notabilis were identified along with their optimal values. The results indicate that Annual Precipitation (bio12), Precipitation of Driest Month (bio14), Min Temperature of Coldest Month (bio6), Temperature Annual Range (bio5–bio6) (bio7), Precipitation of Warmest Quarter (bio18), and Precipitation of Coldest Quarter (bio19) are the primary environmental variables affecting its potential distribution. Currently, M. notabilis exhibits high suitability over an area spanning 11,568 km[sup.2], while medium suitability covers 34,244 km[sup.2]. Both current and future suitable areas for M. notabilis are predominantly concentrated in Sichuan, Yunnan, and Guizhou provinces, as well as Chongqing city in southwest China. Under the SSP5-8.5 scenario representing high greenhouse gas concentrations by 2050s and 2090s, there is an increase in high suitability area by 2952 km[sup.2] and 3440 km[sup.2], with growth rates reaching 25.52% and 29.74%, respectively. Notably, these two scenarios exhibit substantial expansion in suitable habitats for this species compared to others analyzed within this study period.
  • Publisher: MDPI AG
  • Language: English
  • Identifier: ISSN: 1999-4907
    EISSN: 1999-4907
    DOI: 10.3390/f15020352
  • Source: AUTh Library subscriptions: ProQuest Central
    ROAD: Directory of Open Access Scholarly Resources
    DOAJ Directory of Open Access Journals
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