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Global drivers of future river flood risk

Nature climate change, 2016-04, Vol.6 (4), p.381-385 [Peer Reviewed Journal]

Copyright Nature Publishing Group Apr 2016 ;ISSN: 1758-678X ;EISSN: 1758-6798 ;DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2893

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  • Title:
    Global drivers of future river flood risk
  • Author: Winsemius, Hessel C. ; Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H. ; van Beek, Ludovicus P. H. ; Bierkens, Marc F. P. ; Bouwman, Arno ; Jongman, Brenden ; Kwadijk, Jaap C. J. ; Ligtvoet, Willem ; Lucas, Paul L. ; van Vuuren, Detlef P. ; Ward, Philip J.
  • Subjects: Freshwater
  • Is Part Of: Nature climate change, 2016-04, Vol.6 (4), p.381-385
  • Description: Understanding global future river flood risk is a prerequisite for the quantification of climate change impacts and planning effective adaptation strategies. Existing global flood risk projections fail to integrate the combined dynamics of expected socio-economic development and climate change. We present the first global future river flood risk projections that separate the impacts of climate change and socio-economic development. The projections are based on an ensemble of climate model outputs, socio-economic scenarios, and a state-of-the-art hydrologic river flood model combined with socio-economic impact models. Globally, absolute damage may increase by up to a factor of 20 by the end of the century without action. Countries in Southeast Asia face a severe increase in flood risk. Although climate change contributes significantly to the increase in risk in Southeast Asia, we show that it is dwarfed by the effect of socio-economic growth, even after normalization for gross domestic product (GDP) growth. African countries face a strong increase in risk mainly due to socio-economic change. However, when normalized to GDP, climate change becomes by far the strongest driver. Both high- and low-income countries may benefit greatly from investing in adaptation measures, for which our analysis provides a basis.
  • Publisher: London: Nature Publishing Group
  • Language: English
  • Identifier: ISSN: 1758-678X
    EISSN: 1758-6798
    DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2893
  • Source: ProQuest Central
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