skip to main content
Language:
Search Limited to: Search Limited to: Resource type Show Results with: Show Results with: Search type Index

Spatial and temporal changes in population distribution and population projection at county level in China

Humanities & social sciences communications, 2024-12, Vol.11 (1), p.288-13 [Peer Reviewed Journal]

The Author(s) 2024. This work is published under http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (the “License”). Notwithstanding the ProQuest Terms and Conditions, you may use this content in accordance with the terms of the License. ;EISSN: 2662-9992 ;DOI: 10.1057/s41599-024-02784-1

Full text available

Citations Cited by
  • Title:
    Spatial and temporal changes in population distribution and population projection at county level in China
  • Author: Sang, Mei ; Jiang, Jing ; Huang, Xin ; Zhu, Feifei ; Wang, Qian
  • Subjects: Census of Population ; Demographics ; Developing countries ; Economic development ; Forecasting ; Geography ; Globalization ; LDCs ; Population density ; Population growth ; Regions ; Research methodology ; Society ; Sustainable development ; Trends ; Urban areas ; Urbanization
  • Is Part Of: Humanities & social sciences communications, 2024-12, Vol.11 (1), p.288-13
  • Description: Counties in China play a pivotal role in economic and social development, acting as essential leadership hubs for large and medium-sized cities, contributing to rural revitalization, and facilitating urban-rural integration. Using ArcGIS spatial analysis, this study examines the population distribution spatial and dispersion patterns in Chinese counties based on 40 years of data from the first to the seventh national population census. Results reveal noticeable growth trends and regional disparities in county populations, with an increase in large-population counties and a decrease in small-population ones. Recent population growth concentrates in urban agglomerations, metropolitan areas, and southeastern coastal regions, while reductions occur in the northeastern and Inner Mongolia border areas. Furthermore, the study identifies “high-high” agglomerations around provincial capitals and “low-low” agglomerations in economically underdeveloped western and northeastern border regions. China’s population distribution spatial agglomeration has been increasing, with acceleration toward specific areas. The first through seventh census show rapid growth at low density, followed by growth at medium density, stable growth, and eventually negative growth. This suggests a likely slowdown and potential reversal in China’s future population growth. Additionally, an Auto Regression Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model is employed to forecast China’s total population, projecting a decline to 1343.68 million by 2035. The emergence of “population loss counties” in contemporary China underscores the need for a rational understanding of their development status and trends to optimize population development strategies and promote economic and social progress.
  • Publisher: London: Palgrave Macmillan
  • Language: English
  • Identifier: EISSN: 2662-9992
    DOI: 10.1057/s41599-024-02784-1
  • Source: ProQuest Central
    DOAJ Directory of Open Access Journals
Back to results list
INSPIRE LIBRARY - TON DUC THANG UNIVERSITY (84-028) 37 755 057 Feedback
19 Nguyen Huu Tho St. Dist.7, HCM thuvien@tdtu.edu.vn

Copyright © 2017 INSPIRE LIBRARY - TON DUC THANG UNIVERSITY

Searching Remote Databases, Please Wait