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The Value of Crowdsourced Earnings Forecasts

Journal of accounting research, 2016-09, Vol.54 (4), p.1077-1110 [Peer Reviewed Journal]

2016 The Accounting Research Center at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business ;Copyright ©, University of Chicago on behalf of the Accounting Research Center, 2016 ;ISSN: 0021-8456 ;EISSN: 1475-679X ;DOI: 10.1111/1475-679X.12121 ;CODEN: JACRBR

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  • Title:
    The Value of Crowdsourced Earnings Forecasts
  • Author: JAME, RUSSELL ; JOHNSTON, RICK ; MARKOV, STANIMIR ; WOLFE, MICHAEL C.
  • Subjects: analyst ; Capital market ; Capital markets ; Crowdsourcing ; Earnings forecasting ; earnings response coefficients ; forecast ; G28 ; G29 ; M41 ; M43 ; Open source software ; Performance evaluation ; Studies
  • Is Part Of: Journal of accounting research, 2016-09, Vol.54 (4), p.1077-1110
  • Description: Crowdsourcing—when a task normally performed by employees is out-sourced to a large network of people via an open call—is making inroads into the investment research industry. We shed light on this new phenomenon by examining the value of crowdsourced earnings forecasts. Our sample includes 51,012 forecasts provided by Estimize, an open platform that solicits and reports forecasts from over 3,000 contributors. We find that Estimize forecasts are incrementally useful in forecasting earnings and measuring the market's expectations of earnings. Our results are stronger when the number of Estimize contributors is larger, consistent with the benefits of crowdsourcing increasing with the size of the crowd. Finally, Estimize consensus revisions generate significant two-day size-adjusted returns. The combined evidence suggests that crowdsourced forecasts are a useful supplementary source of information in capital markets.
  • Publisher: Chicago: Blackwell Publishing Ltd
  • Language: English
  • Identifier: ISSN: 0021-8456
    EISSN: 1475-679X
    DOI: 10.1111/1475-679X.12121
    CODEN: JACRBR
  • Source: Alma/SFX Local Collection
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